Arcola, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

732
FXUS63 KILX 011106
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
606 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Well above normal temperatures (highs in the mid 80s to near 90) and
  dry weather will continue through Monday across central and
  southeast IL.
- Elevated fire weather conditions will develop this weekend, as
  south southwest winds increase across the Midwest along with
  lower humidity levels and dry fuels.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The 08Z/3 am surface map shows strong 1032-1034 mb Canadian high
pressure over James Bay and ridging southward across the Great
Lakes region and also sw over IA/MO. Winds were NE under 10 mph
and some areas like southeast IL having near calm winds. Scattered
to broken cirrus clouds had spread eastward across IL early this
morning, while more widespread mid/high clouds were over IA and
northwest/nw MO. Temps were in the mid 50s to lower 60s, while
dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
An omega block pattern continues over the country rest of this
week with more of the same warm/dry weather expected over CWA.
The strong/large Canadian high pressure system to move southeast
over Quebec by sunset and drop down over the mid Atlantic States
and southern New England by Thu night/Friday while ridging back
into the mid MS river valley and IL. In conjunction with influence
of surface high pressure, we have a strong mid/upper level
subtropical high over northern Mexico and Texas ridging ne into IL
rest of this week, keeping it dry along with well above normal
temps especially daytimes highs which will be in the mid 80s to
near 90F (hottest temps around Friday). NE winds not quite as
breezy today as yesterday but RH`s still drop to 25-30% over
central IL this afternoon and will be a concern for isolated field
fires with harvesting. Winds turn south to SE on Thu and SSW on
Friday but generally stay under 10 mph much of this time period.
SSW winds pick up to breezier levels during Sat afternoon into
Sunday. The Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDWI) using the GEFS, shows max
daily values rising above the 75th percentile over the IL river
valley Saturday afternoon, and over much of central IL north of
I-70 Sunday afternoon (based on a 30-year climatology). So we will
likely be increasing our messaging for elevated fire danger as
this weekend approaches. We already have been having isolated
field fires over IL the past few days, and could continue to see
more rest of the work week, prior to elevated fire risk this
weekend.
A strong mid/upper level trof digging over the Western States late
this week while strong upper level ridge shifts eastward into the
Atlantic States, putting IL in a more sw upper level flow by
early next week. A cold front to push se into nw IL Monday and
thru central IL Monday night. This will bring our next chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms Mon night into Tue. Rainfall
amounts appear fairly light (generally under a quarter inch). This
front to finally bring a bit cooler air into the area for middle
of next week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday, lower 80s
Tue and mid to upper 70s next Wed/Thu.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Oct
8-14th has a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures across IL.
Much of central IL is trending near normal for precipitation, with
33-40% chance of below normal precipitation in far southeast IL
near the Ohio river valley, while 33-40% chance above normal pcpn
in nw IL from Quincy to Rockford area northwest. Overall not a
favorable outlook to alleviate moderate to severe drought
conditions over central and southern IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs with thin
broken cirrus clouds over the area and east to northeast winds of
less than 10kts.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion