639 FXUS63 KFGF 211950 AFDFGFArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer then average through the week with dry weather expected.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Upper low rotating over our eastern counties will continue to slowly drift eastward towards Lake Superior tonight. Still getting some decent showers and even a few thunderstorms developing across our eastern counties. Fortunately, surface vorticity is much less than yesterday so think the main impacts will be isolated lightning strikes and brief rain rather than funnels. Some of the cumulus on the back side of the upper low will dissipate later this evening, so at least part of the CWA will see some clearing overnight. Fog development could again be an issue, with the HREF showing 50 to 60 percent chance for some spots to drop below half a mile in visibility, particularly along our southern and eastern border. Still too soon to tell exactly where and how dense fog will be, so just kept mention going with no SPS or headlines.
The upper low will exit off to the east into the Great Lakes tomorrow, with a secondary southern branch low extending with a positive tilt well to our southwest. Blocking ridge sets up from the Rockies into the Northern Plains, moving slightly eastward towards the end of the work week. Ensembles still showing a warmer than average signal for temperature, so highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s continue. Dry conditions with ridging shifting to northwesterly flow. Several of the ensemble members bring a shortwave into Ontario but all have the forcing too far north to bring us much precipitation.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions at KDVL and KFAR, with stratocu hanging around at KGFK and the MN airports. Although there is currently a hole over the KTVF area expecting that to fill in. Lingering showers and stratocu will continue into the afternoon for the east before clearing out this evening for all sites. Fog formation is possible, with models most consistent for KBJI so have vis going down to 1SM for now. Could see some further west also but not as confident. All sites should return to VFR by the end of the period. Winds will remain light and mostly variable, with some airports steadying out of the southeast.
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.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None.
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DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR
NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion