Arkdale, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS63 KARX 301907
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
207 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue through
  the end of the week.
- Probabilities for rain increase this weekend into early next
  week (20-40%).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Dry Conditions and Above Normal Temperatures
Upper level ridging is the primary player in the weather game
across the Upper Midwest through the work week. The ridge axis
resides over Wisconsin into northern Minnesota today and will
shift eastward over the next few days. As it does, southerly
flow will continue across the region, working alongside
subsidence associated with the ridge, allowing for dry
conditions and warm temperatures. Greater cloud coverage
associated with a shortwave trough traversing the ridge will
hinder diurnal heating Wednesday, keeping temperatures slightly
cooler than the rest of the week, generally in the upper 70s to
low 80s. Given ample dry air in place as seen in RAP/HRRR model
soundings, precipitation is not expected with this shortwave.
As we head towards the end of the week, clearer skies are
expected across the Upper Midwest, allowing for rising
temperatures. The 30.00z LREF 925hPa temperatures sit around 24C
with only a 2-3C spread in the 10th-90th percentiles suggesting
surface high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
through the end of the work week. These highs are well above
normal, generally above by 20 to 25 degrees. This is in
agreement with the 30.00z EFI which highlights a 90-95%
probability of unusually warm temperatures Friday and Saturday
and depicts a shift of tails of 1 just to the northwest of our
area, suggesting these temperatures could be associated with a
highly unusual event. Record high temperatures may come into
play if temperature trends continue on their current
trajectory.
Some fire weather concern comes as a result of the warm and dry
conditions over the next few days, although winds are expected
to be too light and minimum RHs too high to lead to elevated
fire weather conditions. The primary areas of concern are
northeast Iowa, southwest Wisconsin, and west-central Wisconsin
where soils are driest.
Rain Probabilities This Weekend and Early Next Week
Cluster Analysis indicates the upper level pattern begins to
break down this weekend as the longwave trough currently
shifting onto the West Coast of the United States moves eastward
across the United States. Differences regarding how the upper
level pattern evolves (i.e., amplitude, timing, location) are
noted amongst the 30.06z GEFS/EPS/GEPS ensemble means, leading
to uncertainty in how the weekend into early next week will play
out. However, these ensembles are in agreement regarding a cold
front swinging through the region in the Sunday to Tuesday
timeframe, bringing 20-40% probabilities for showers through
the beginning of next week. Ahead of the front, increased 850hPa
winds should lead to stronger surface winds Saturday and behind
the front, cold air advection will allow for cooling
temperatures across the region, falling to near normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. SCT-BKN
high-level clouds will continue through the afternoon into the
overnight hours with light east to southeasterly surface winds.
Cloudy conditions will continue overnight with slightly faster
low level winds, so fog concerns are low, although some pockets
of patchy fog/low stratus in the more fog prone areas may be in
play based on low level moisture profiles.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Falkinham

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion