Arnett Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

403
FXUS64 KOUN 121105
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 555 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
- Warm, dry and breezy conditions lead to fire weather concern
    across north and west Oklahoma on Sunday.
- Chance for rain/storms across portions of Oklahoma and north Texas
    late Sunday night through Tuesday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
As larger trough moves through the Rockies into the Plains lee
cyclogenesis will occur which will increase the surface pressure
gradient and associated winds across the area today. These gusty
south winds will combine with very warm temperatures, low afternoon
humidities and stressed vegetation due to developing drought
conditions to result in some areas of elevated fire weather concerns
this afternoon. Although increasing cloud cover in the afternoon may
alleviate this to some degree with limiting insolation.
Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the 90s across a
majority of the area, with the exception of northwest Oklahoma,
where cloud cover may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler (upper
80s). OKC may approach their record high, which is 94 degrees, but
should fall just short.
For tonight, first of a couple of minor shortwaves will approach the
area from the southwest. This shortwave along with the increase in
tropical moisture will result in the development of showers and
possibly isolated thunderstorms into the western portions of the
area, mainly after midnight. Meanwhile, a cold front will push south
into northwest Oklahoma as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
The aforementioned surface cold front will push slowly south into
western and northern Oklahoma on Monday. This front will serve as a
focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity during the day
as a stronger shortwave lifts northeast across the area. Models
continue to increase both precip chances and rainfall amounts for
Monday in these areas around the surface front. Perhaps a few areas
may be lucky enough to pick up a half inch of rain.
Front then stalls and begins to lift back to the north Monday night
into early Tuesday, taking the better rain chances with it. May see
a few lingering showers in far northwest Oklahoma into Tuesday
morning before precip ends.
We then see the ridge begin to build back north across the area by
late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
Upper ridge will then take control, at least for a short time before
stronger western trough takes shape and shifts east toward the
central part of the conus by late week. This will bring another cold
front and additional rain chances to the area by Friday. Model
differences then begin to emerge as we go into the following weekend
with regards to strength and timing of upper troughs and surface
cold fronts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025
VFR conditions to continue.
LLWS will continue for a few more hours this morning across the
west and north before llj weakens. South winds will increase
through the morning with gusts to around 30kts possible across the
west. Will also see an increase in mid/high clouds as we go
through the day. Some rain may move into the west toward the end
of the forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  69  79  65 /  10  20  20   0
Hobart OK         91  67  79  62 /  10  30  40   0
Wichita Falls TX  92  70  86  63 /  10  10  10   0
Gage OK           87  61  72  60 /  10  20  50  20
Ponca City OK     91  66  77  65 /  10  20  40  10
Durant OK         90  66  88  62 /   0  10   0   0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion