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Aroma Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

859
FXUS63 KSGF 132312
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 612 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers will remain possible this afternoon into the early evening.

- Temperatures warm to above normal for the remainder of the work week.

- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday into Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Upper level analysis shows an upper level ridge axis extending from east TX into the OH valley. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low dropping south along the California coastline. In between the low and upper ridge, a broad area of southwest flow was occurring with an upper level jet streak and upper level energy across the central and southern plains extending east across Missouri. With a moisture plume over the area, some scattered showers were occuring in the forecast area. However, the majority of shower coverage remains to the west of the area with the upper ridge axis in place across our area. The cloud cover and scattered light precipitation has aided in keeping temperatures a bit cooler today in the low 70s so far.

Forecast tonight and Tuesday: the ridge axis will continue to build northward over the area and should keep the precipitation chances to our west. Temperatures will begin to warm again, back into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday which is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Warmer than normal temperatures this week: The upper ridge will continue to amplify over the area this week while the upper low begins to slowly push eastward into the Rockies by the middle to later part of the week. The low level jet and upper energy should remain to our west through Thursday. Temperatures should continue to remain well above normal for this time of year in the low to mid 80s for highs and mid 50s to low 60s for lows.

Thunderstorm chances late Friday into Saturday: A secondary system will give this first trough a boost eastward as we head into late Friday and the weekend sending a cold front through the area along with upper level energy. While models agree on bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area, there still remains some timing differences with respect to the upper wave and surface front. The GFS deterministic and ensemble data appear quite a bit faster than the ECMWF data. That being said, we still have 40-70% pops for Friday night into Saturday night across the area. Ensembles continue to show low probabilities of combined shear/CAPE over the area on Saturday and possibly Saturday night, so will need to monitor for the potential of some severe storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR through the period with variable winds and overcast skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Soria

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion

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