Arrey, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS64 KEPZ 060420
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1020 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 907 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
- Temperatures remain a few degrees above normal through the
   week.
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of
   the week, favoring northern areas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1016 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Positively tilted trough continues from central Canada down
across the Great Basin to central California. This has allowed a
rather persistent dry, southwest flow over the CWA for several
days. Models do continue to show moisture advection beginning
Monday night and more in earnest Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane
Priscilla, thought not sharing any moisture with us (yet) is
helping the upper pattern by allowing sub-tropical high to build
back over northern Mexico. This will allow mid-level (700-500 mb)
flow to turn more south/southeast and bring moisture in. At the
surface the east/southeast flow brings a dry (wet) line in, again
somewhat on Monday night but more significantly on Tuesday. Thus a
few showers/thunderstorms could break out east of the RG Valley
late Monday afternoon and evening. Some of the CAMS models show
this solution. Grids are starting to reflect this, though future
shifts might want to increase this. Expect some POPs through
Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday...sub-tropical high continues building west
and centering over west Texas by later Thursday into Friday. This
should help push the main moisture plume north and west of the
CWA, allowing POPs to approach zero.
Saturday through Monday...the last short-wave or two out of the
positively tilted trough is able to bang into the Mexican high and
begin displacing it eastward some. Thus, the main moisture plume
migrates eastward back over the CWA, for increasing chances of
showers/thunderstorms. Some difference between GFS/ECMWF with
timing. ECMWF is earlier, suggesting rain could develop Saturday
afternoon while ending by early Tuesday morning. On the other hand
the slower GFS begins the rain out west Sunday afternoon and
spreading eastward later in the day, and lasting well past Monday.
GFS also more explicit than ECMWF in showing moisture from next
tropical system (Raymond) playing a role in our weather after
Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with mostly SKC. East
of the Rio Grande Valley...SCT-BKN100 dissipating next few hours,
then SKC. After 18Z east of the RG Valley...SCT-BKN090 reforming,
with a slight chance of a BKN070 -SHRA over the Sacramento Mtns.
Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots becoming southwest 8-12 knots
after 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
This afternoon will feature the driest conditions as much of the
lowlands fall below 15% RH, but moisture is expected to increase
for Monday and moreso for Tuesday. The Gila will see min RH values
around 15%, but elsewhere values will range in the upper teens
and lower 20s for Monday, increasing to the mid to upper 20s area
wide for Tuesday. Winds will continue to be relatively light,
peaking at around 10 MPH each afternoon. Venting will range fair
to very good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  69  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            87  60  84  59 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               86  63  84  62 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               87  62  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               65  45  59  43 /   0   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    85  58  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              78  55  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   88  61  88  63 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                84  60  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       88  69  86  68 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                89  63  85  62 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             93  68  90  67 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               83  62  79  60 /   0  10   0  10
Fabens                   91  68  88  66 /   0  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             87  66  85  66 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           87  66  84  64 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            86  63  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    88  62  86  63 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 88  64  88  66 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                86  63  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  75  50  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
Mescalero                77  50  71  48 /   0   0  10  10
Timberon                 73  50  67  47 /   0   0  10  10
Winston                  78  48  75  50 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                84  57  82  56 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                85  59  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             79  49  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   81  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    86  55  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               81  50  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  58  80  58 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   86  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  85  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           85  60  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               80  60  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion