Arvada, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

909
FXUS65 KBYZ 050808
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
208 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably cool again tonight to Saturday; frost possible in
  eastern sheltered valleys Friday night.
- Warming trend through the weekend and a chance for precipitation
  starting Sunday. Above normal temps are favored next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Saturday night...
Look for a crisp Autumn-like start for your day as temps this
morning will start out in the mid 30s to lower 40s over the
forecast area as a cool air mass has settled over the high plains
behind yesterdays Canadian front. Some frost is possible in the
east early this morning (Baker has 25% chance of frost). Dry
northerly flow over the region will result in afternoon highs well
below normal with readings ranging from lower 70s west to lower
60s along the Dakota borders. Breezy conditions are possible again
today, mainly in the far east closer to the eastern stateline.
However, gusts will not be nearly as strong as yesterday, topping
off in the 20 to 30 mph range in the afternoon.
Air quality will be much improved today as northerly winds have
pushed most of the smoke out of southeastern Montana and north
central Wyoming.
Temps will not be quite as cool for tonight, with upper 30s to
mid 40s common, but there is still a good chance of frost
overnight again in the eastern valleys such as Baker where there
is a 65% chance of dropping to at least 36F. Other notoriously
cool spots like Mizpah & Brandenberg may also see a frost. In the
Sheridan Foothills there is a 45% chance of temperatures dropping
to 36F as well. Those with sensitive outdoor plants/gardens may
want to take precautions again.
Upper ridging will start to gradually build over our region
Saturday. This will result in a warming trend pushing highs to
around 80 west to upper 60s east. BT
Sunday through Thursday...
A weak shortwave in the flow will bring a 30-50% chance of showers
and thunderstorms over the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains Sunday
afternoon/evening. Then, a broad upper level trough off the
Pacific coast will slowly move inland, leading to increasing
atmospheric moisture and an increasing chance for widespread
showers and thunderstorms through midweek.
By Wednesday and Thursday, PWATs will be around 130-150% of
normal and there will be a 20-40% chance of showers and
thunderstorms for most locations. During this time, MUCAPE values
are expected to be around 400-1000 J/kg, which may allow some
stronger storms to develop, but the finer details are still
uncertain. This will be something to watch.
High temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 70s over the east
to mid 80s over western and central zones. By Monday, highs are
expected to increase to the mid 80s to near 90. Then, temperatures
will gradually cool, reaching upper 70s to low 80s by Thursday.
Archer
&&
.AVIATION...
There is a chance of MVFR/LIFR conditions due to smoke/haze at
KMLS through about 15Z this morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions
under mostly clear skies will prevail through the period. This
afternoon, winds will become breezy near the Dakota border,
including KBHK and KMLS, with gusts around 15-25 kts. Otherwise,
winds will remain mostly light. BT/Archer
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070 043/078 048/087 059/087 056/084 056/083 057/080
    0/U 00/U    01/B    11/B    01/B    22/W    33/W
LVM 072 040/082 047/084 049/083 049/079 048/077 047/075
    0/U 00/U    02/T    21/B    13/T    34/T    44/T
HDN 070 038/079 043/087 054/087 052/085 055/085 053/081
    0/U 00/U    00/B    10/B    01/B    22/W    32/W
MLS 067 038/073 044/085 054/087 054/084 058/082 059/082
    0/U 00/U    00/B    00/B    00/U    22/W    32/W
4BQ 064 040/071 044/082 055/084 054/082 057/081 059/082
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    00/U    21/B    22/W
BHK 064 034/070 039/080 050/084 049/081 051/078 053/080
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/B    00/U    22/W    32/W
SHR 069 036/076 043/084 052/084 050/082 052/084 051/082
    0/U 00/U    00/B    11/B    02/T    22/W    32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion