Ash Fork, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

038
FXUS65 KFGZ 051145
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
445 AM MST Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through
Saturday. Dry air starts to move in on Sunday with only isolated
chances through the rest of the week, mainly across the higher
terrain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A mesoscale complex is pushing southward through
Nevada/NW Arizona early this morning, and will continue to drop
southward through the morning. As we head toward sunrise, this
complex should weaken with much of the precipitation remaining
just outside of the CWA border. However, the remnant cloud cover
from this decaying complex may linger and could delay the start of
convection later today, especially across western areas. We will
continue to see increased moisture across the southwest today and
Saturday due to the flow around the weakening TS Lorena. Storms
will start to develop this afternoon, mainly after 12 PM, and
continue into this evening, Hi-res guidance is once again showing
activity continuing into the overnight period with another MCV
potentially developing near the AZ/UT/NV border. Could make for an
interesting afternoon and night as we see how this all unfolds.
However, breaking out of the clouds will be an important factor in
how much convection we are able to see for today. Storm motions
will largely be driven by the outflows and some of the stronger
storms will be capable of gusts to 35-45 mph. Heavy rainfall will
remain to be a primary hazard today and with PWATs in the 1.0-1.5"
range across the region and slow storm motions, localized flash
flooding will also be threat. Similar conditions are expected on
Saturday.
A deep trough will push down along the west coast over the weekend
and then push inland early in the week. This trough will switch a
out flow to become more zonal on Sunday and allow for much drier air
to arrive to the state. This will essentially bring an end to our
active weather pattern. Lingering moisture and orographic lift will
allow for isolated to scattered storms to develop on Sunday but as
the trough crosses the region, we will dry out further with only
very isolated development, limited to the higher terrain through the
rest of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...Friday 05/12Z through Saturday 06/12Z...Mainly VFR
expected. Brief MVFR or lower in SCT-NMRS TSRA/SHRA, mainly after
18Z with gusty and erratic outflows 30-40 kts. Outside of storms,
expect daytime west winds 5-15 kts with light and variable
overnight.
OUTLOOK...Saturday 06/12Z through Monday 08/12Z...Mainly VFR
expected. Brief MVFR or lower in SCT-NMRS TSRA/SHRA after 18Z on
Saturday becoming ISO on Sunday. Expect gusty and erratic outflows
25-35 kts in and near TS. Outside of storms, expect S-W winds
5-15 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Scattered to widespread showers
and thunderstorms expected each afternoon. Main hazards will be
heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty/erratic winds. Outside
of storms, expect westerly winds at 10-20 mph.
Sunday through Tuesday...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected on Sunday, mainly along the Mogollon Rim
and the White Mountains, becoming more isolated on Monday as drier
air starts to move into the region. West winds at 5-15 mph on
Sunday, becoming southwest at 10-20 mph on Monday and Tuesday.
Minimum RH values will gradually decrease each day, falling to 15-
30% by Tuesday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion