Ashe County North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

320
FXUS61 KRNK 121757
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
157 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure heads to off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday, then
out to sea Tuesday. A dry front pushes across midweek with
cooler temperatures behind it. High pressure controls our
weather into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Patchy light rain/drizzle through this evening mainly
along/east of the Blue Ridge, with a northeast breeze.
2) Could get foggy late tonight in the mountains if winds
weaken.
3) More sun Monday with milder temperatures.
Low pressure off the NC coast will start to work into the mid-
Atlantic coast tonight. Surface gradient to stay tighter in the
Piedmont resulting in gusty winds into tonight.
Radar and sfc obs have indicated very light rain and/or drizzle
today, and this trend continues through this evening mainly
along/east of the Blue Ridge before drier air works in later
tonight with the low moving away.
Wind speeds look to be light across the mountains later tonight
so fog appears a good bet, but to what extent, will have to wait
and see.
Cloud cover decreases Monday with sunshine bringing milder highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Mild and quiet weather expected this week.
2) A chance of frost Thursday morning in the deeper mountain
valleys.
Remnant gusty winds and precipitation may linger Monday night into
Tuesday as the coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic begins to head to
the east. A cold front is forecast to arrive sometime in the middle
of the week, possibly as early as Tuesday night to bring higher
pressure with drier and cooler air. It won`t be until Thursday
morning when the change of temperatures will be noticeable so
temperatures will likely continue to be above normal with highs in
the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s until then. Low level
cold air advection by the middle of the week will bring early
morning temperatures into the mid-30s for elevated areas. There is a
modest risk of frost early Thursday morning, especially in
Greenbrier and Monroe counties. While skies are expected to be clear
this week thanks to the higher surface pressure, winds will be a
contributing factor on where frost can be expected. Winds and
temperatures will continually be monitored for any change in frost
potential. While relative humidity will be very high during the
early mornings before the cold air arrives, model guidance suggests
it will be too breezy to support widespread fog development outside
of rivers or bodies of water at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
Key Messages:
1) Frost possible on Friday morning.
2) Stronger cold front to bring another chance of precipitation by
next weekend.
A surface high pressure system with its center over Canada will
continue to move east and bring higher pressure over the Mid-
Atlantic. A localized center of high pressure may be over our region
Friday morning, allowing for calm winds and a greater chance of
frost. This morning will also be the coldest of the week, with early
morning temperatures in the lower 30s to lower 40s. Areas along and
west of the Blue Ridge are more likely to have quiet winds and
temperatures in the lower to mid-30s to support frost. As confidence
grows in the forecast later this week, the need for any Freeze
Warnings and Frost Advisories will be considered.
After Friday, all attention goes into a frontal system that is
expected to pass through early next week. While specific timing is
uncertain, model guidance is adamant of this front forming and going
through our region. While this system may bring severe weather to
parts of the United States, it is far too early to know of any
impacts here. What is currently likely, however, is receiving
precipitation for the whole region. Certainty on impacts of this
storm system will be narrowed down as we approach the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...
IFR to MVFR cigs can be expected through tonight over much of
the area. Patchy light rain/drizzle may impact vsbys especially
along east of BCB/ROA down to MVFR, and possibly IFR through
this evening as well.
During the overnight BLF/LWB may start to see some fog if winds
subside and clearing takes place. At the moment leaning toward
1-3sm miles a those sites.
The northeast to north winds will be strongest from ROA to
LYH/DAN this afternoon with gusts 20-24kts, but then should
weaken later tonight to under 20kts.
Some differences in how quick we clear out of the lower cigs
Monday but leaning toward VFR for most before 18z Monday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Aviation pattern looks favorable through Friday, outside of any
fog at valley airports like LWB in the late night/early morning
time frame.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion