Au Train, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

042
FXUS63 KMQT 061723
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
123 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers may develop this afternoon (15-30% chance)
  before giving away to lake effect rain showers across the
  northern tier of the UP tonight.
- A cool airmass will remain over the Upper Great Lakes through
  the weekend, with some moderation expected early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Early morning remote sensing and RAP analysis reveals deep troughing
across the Great Lakes region with a handful of embedded shortwaves,
one of which is pressing eastward just south of the UP. Weak
synoptic lift is forcing an area of light stratiform rain across NE
WI and Menominee Co while chilly NW flow across Lake Superior is
supporting weak lake effect rain showers in the west half. A band of
higher radar returns is noted where convergence in the east-central
lake is kicking off a few moderate showers in Alger/Luce counties
compared to the rest of the area. Gales are no longer being
realized, though observations still show gusty 25-30 kt NW to W
gusts mainly along the lakeshores and open waters.
Headed into this Saturday morning, expecting a drying trend from
west to east as midlevel dry air works into the region. This may be
short lived as an upstream shortwave embedded within the parent
longwave trough swings across the Northern Great Lakes through
tonight. Steepening low level lapse rates in combination with
afternoon daytime heating may be enough to develop some isolated to
scattered rain showers this afternoon. CAM guidance depicts various
coverage of developing convection, thus have opted to increase
slight chance PoPs across the UP after 21z. Tonight and into Sunday
morning, CAA behind a weak cold front under the eastward departing
trough axis will result in an uptick in scattered lake effect rain
showers for the NW wind "snow" belts. Lake effect rain showers may
linger in the east half into Sunday morning where convergence along
the greatest fetch occurs. With troughing in Quebec finally pushing
further NE, a brief period of ridging building into the west-central
CONUS, and sfc high pressure working its way into the Midwest, dry
weather is favored the rest of Sunday into the start of the work
week.
Otherwise, efficient mixing overhead Lake Superior will support
gusty W to NW winds near 25-30 kts and high wave action today before
diminishing into Sunday.
Temperatures will slightly both today and Sunday with highs
generally in the 50s area wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A ridge over the western U.S will start to break down late this
weekend as an upper low approaches the Pacific NW. By midweek
troughing will extend down the western U.S with a ridge building
from the plains north through central Canada. This will keep
the U.P under a northwest to westerly upper level flow through
the week, helping to bring shortwave energy south into the Upper
Great Lakes and resulting in precipitation chances at times
though the week. Temperatures will moderate some, well into the
60s for early next week but additional cold fronts will set
temperatures back into the 50s to low 60s for mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon and
evening, with just some scattered to broken midlevel cloud cover and
gusty winds mainly at CMX coming down later this afternoon. Later
this evening and overnight a cold front will push through the area
bringing the chance for showers along with CIGs falling to MVFR at
IWD and CMX. With less confidence in showers at SAW, VFR conditions
persist.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A surface low will continue to pull away from the area today, lifting
to near James Bay by Saturday. A tight pressure gradient will remain
over the lake through this evening with cold air advection bringing
instability and mixing strong winds down to the surface. Expecting
northwest to west gales over all of the lake through late this
evening with gusts to 40 kts expected for the waters adjacent to the
west side of the Keweenaw. Wind will finally start to come down late
tonight with gust to around 25 kts by Saturday morning. Winds will
mainly be west to northwest around 20 kts but could gust to 25 kts
near the Keweenaw. Winds shift north-northwest early Sunday morning
as another cold front sweeps across the lake from the north. Wind
come back down to near 20 kts for Sunday night and Monday. On Monday
night into Tuesday southerly winds will develop. Ensemble guidance
shows about a 30% chance for gales with the southerly flow
developing, especially over the eastern half of the lake.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ005-006.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...BW/NL
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...NL

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion