Aurora, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

055
FXUS62 KMHX 271941
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
341 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Active pattern through the period with stalled front and
incoming tropical moisture leading to a wet few days ahead of
potential impacts from offshore Hurricane Humberto and Tropical
Depression 9. Also expecting a prolonged period of strong
northeasterly winds as high pressure looks to build in from the
north by about mid week with the tropical systems to the south
and east.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Sct to numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms will cont through early this evening. As we get
into tonight upper level trough is expected to cutoff from the
flow and slowly retrograde west towards the Tennessee River
Valley. As this occurs, a spoke of mid level shortwave energy
will likely be pushing across the Southeast this evening, and
then push a sfc boundary through overnight, turning wind flow to
north northwesterly. This will bring some deep layer drying
overnight, though surface winds will remain light to calm. This
may promote fog, locally dense, if enough clearing of debris
clouds occurs. Rain potential winds down over the Coastal Plains
after midnight, with fog and very low stratus potential going
up. Have patchy to areas fog in grids as a result. Very warm for
this time of year with lows in the upper 60s interior to low 70s
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...The aforementioned boundary will have moved
through ENC on Sun morning, with a lull in precip for the
western half of the FA. Eastern areas will remain under
influence of rich bndry layer moisture however, and cont to see
sct showers with iso thunderstorms throughout the day. Winds
become easterly in the afternoon, with local sea/sound breezes
helping to initiate additional showers during the afternoon. Any
flood threat will be very low due to lack of substantial covg
of shower activity. Highs will generally be around 80 with cont
mo cloudy to ovc skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1500 Saturday...
Key Messages:
- Monitoring the evolution of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
   and Humberto over the next several days for any indirect or
   direct impacts to ENC next week
The cold front will remained stalled across the area Sunday as
both tropical cyclones over the Atlantic gradually strengthen
and move NNW. Increased forcing from the front and shortwave
will combine with increasing tropical moisture (PWATs around
2"), giving way to scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Expect best precip chances along the coast in
the morning, then likely transitioning inland during the
afternoon. Main concern will be the potential for moderate to
heavy rain, which could lead to a localized flood threat.
Two tropical cyclones will impact the region next week.
Hurricane Humberto is expected to remain well offshore, though
long period swell energy from this system will begin to impact
the waters Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Then newly
upgrade Tropical Depression Nine is forecast to strengthen into
a TS and then a Hurricane as it lifts N-NNW approaching the SE
coast early next week. NHC`s official forecast has TD9
strengthening as it moves Nward offshore of the East Coast of FL
MON and reaching hurricane strength by Tuesday morning while E
of the GA/SC coast. From here, forecast confidence decreases and
therefore quite a bit of uncertainty in the track of this
system with how it will interact with Humberto and weak
steering currents. The official track takes it Eward from
Tuesday into Thursday, but the Wern periphery of the forecast
cone remains pinned directly along the coast of the Carolinas
through this time period.
The key message right now is both systems are expected to bring
some level of impacts to the area, though specifics remain
uncertain at this time. Tropical moisture will be spreading over
the area, and swell will be increasing. Above normal precip
chances expected, with the potential for periods of moderate to
heavy rain. Depending on rainfall this weekend and the eventual
track of TD9, could set up potential for a larger scale flood
threat across the area. Coastal impacts also expected (see
section below for more details). Will continue to monitor for
specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 2 PM Sat...Showers with iso thunderstorms cont through
early this evening. Think chances will quickly decrease
overnight once again with mo cloudy skies left behind overnight
tonight. Big concern will be widespread low cigs and patches of
LIFR fog, as winds become calm. Good chance (>70%) chance of sub
500 ft cigs for all TAF sites, and therefore LIFR in the
forecast after around 06Z. These low cigs will be quite low to
scatter and rise on Sunday, with LIFR likely hanging around most
of the morning tomorrow. Winds will be light to calm overnight,
becoming northeasterly but remaining below 10 kt on Sunday.
LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 230 AM Sat...
Key Messages
- Unsettled pattern will bring unfavorable flying conditions to
   ENC into next week.
A cold front is forecast to stall across the region this
weekend. This front will then move little through early next
week. As a result, will likely see an extended period with a
higher likelihood of sub-VFR conditions across ENC as scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop across the
area. Ceilings and vis will likely be reduced within any rain
and thunderstorm activity while outside of this activity periods
of VFR may be found between precip chances.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Showers and embedded thunderstorms will cont
through tonight, and into the day Sunday. Winds will be swrly
this evening 10-15 kt, then switch north overnight, then nerly
to erly on Sunday as a front moves through the waters. Winds
remain in the 10-15 kt range through Sun with seas 2-4 ft.
LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 1520 Saturday...
Key Message
- Dangerous marine conditions expected next week, with two
   tropical cyclones impacting the waters
Two tropical cyclones will impact the waters next week. Hurricane
Humberto is expected to remain well offshore, though long period
swell energy from this system will begin to impact the waters
Monday, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, TD9 is forecast to
strengthen into a TS and then a Hurricane as it lifts N-NNW
approaching the SE coast early next week. There is still quite a
bit of uncertainty in the track of this system due to
forecast complications with how it will interact with Humberto
and weak steering currents.
Official NHC forecast track shows TD9 moving towards the SE
coast then pushing eastward back offshore, but as noted in NHC`s
discussions over the past few days, track forecast after Tuesday
morning is low confidence with potential for the system to stall
near or along the SE coast for several days as steering
currents collapse. Sunday will be the last decent day across the
waters with light N-E winds with seas 2-4 ft. Strong high
pressure to the north and TD9 to the south will keep a strong
pressure gradient over the waters, with NE-E winds increasing to
15-25 kt through the week along with building seas (10-15 ft) by
Tuesday as swell from Humberto peaks. Seas expected to remain
elevated, potentially increasing further into late-week as TD9
approaches the coast, potentially building seas to 15-20ft for
offshore waters.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1530 Saturday...Long period swell from distant Humberto
is forecast to begin arriving at ENC beaches as early as late
Sunday night/early Monday morning, then peak Tuesday and
Wednesday. Swell impacts are expected to last much of the
upcoming week (in combo with TD9), which include dangerous rip
currents, large breaking waves, and the potential for ocean
overwash, coastal flooding and wave runup impacts. As well as
the swell impacting the coast, a period of strong
NEerly/onshore winds associated with a cold front and building
high pressure in its wake may heighten impacts along the coast,
while also increasing the risk for water level rises on the
inside, including areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound and along
the Neuse mid to late week. We may also see low water level
concerns for Nern sounds. Stay tuned through the week for
updates on the areas of greatest impact, and the magnitude of
those impacts.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion