Auxier, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

759
FXUS63 KJKL 082340 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures and dry weather will persist through
  Tuesday.
- Temperatures will gradually warm to near normal by Thursday and
  continue into next week with no rainfall expected.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and
keep skies mostly clear this evening. Currently, temperatures are
running in the mid to upper 60s most places. Meanwhile, amid light
easterly winds, dewpoints are generally in the upper 40s to lower
50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 414 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
The upper level trough which resided over the eastern CONUS in
recent days has weakened and largely departed to the northeast and
will be gone later tonight. This leaves us with very light flow
aloft before a modest upper level trough approaches from the
northwest near the end of the short term period. At the surface,
high pressure centered near the lower Great Lakes will shift east
northeast, to a position east of the Canadian Maritimes by dawn on
Wednesday. However, it will continue to ridge southwestward near
the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. There will be little in
the way of low level temperature advection, but the flow coming
out of the high/ridge will continue to give us fairly dry air.
Without any significant features aloft, dry weather and mainly
clear skies will continue. Temperatures will creep higher as daily
sunshine works on the air mass. The dry air and sunshine will
continue to promote sizable diurnal ranges of around 30 deg F (or
more).
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
The long-term period opens Wednesday morning with upper-level
ridging departing to our east as mean troughing, extending
southward from James Bay to the upper Mississippi Valley,
approaches from the west. There appear to be two shortwave
features associated with this trough, one of which will be over
the Lower Ohio Valley and Middle Tennessee Valley while another is
found over the Upper Midwest. Further west, an impressive ridge
axis extends from Texas northward into the Arctic regions of
Nunavut. At the surface, ridging extends from a strong surface
high over the North Atlantic westward and then southward along the
spine of the Appalachian Mountains.
That high pressure ridging will continue to dominate our weather
through Wednesday night. By Thursday, the aforementioned upper
level shortwaves consolidate into a single more robust trough
which will then pivot over the Central Appalachians on
Thursday/Thursday night. Models disagree on the amount of moisture
return that is realized across eastern Kentucky, with a few
solutions suggesting PWATs rise to over 1.2 inches, leading to
sufficient CAPE for some showers and even weak thunderstorms. A
majority of the guidance remains much drier, with little or no
instability, keeping this system`s passage dry. The official
forecast remains dry on Thursday/Thursday night for the time
being, but this will need to be monitored. Heights begin rising
aloft and surface high pressure reassumes control heading into
Friday/Saturday until another robust upper low drops nearly due
south from the Hudson Bay early next week. At that point, there is
considerable spread in model solutions, with some solutions
depicting the low diving more into the Mid-Atlantic and allowing
the upper-level ridge more of a drying influence over our weather
while other solutions keep the ridging further west and allow the
low to sink right across the Great Lakes, and perhaps eventually
toward the Middle Ohio Valley. For now, the official forecast at
the end of the long-term retains the dry NBM solution for
continuity as the model guidance has been producing widely varying
solutions in recent days. However, a majority of the LREF members
eventually do bring in some light QPF either by the end of the
long-term period or in the next few days that follow.
In sensible terms, look for a continued warming trend area-wide
through at least Sunday with primarily fair conditions outside of
the typical nocturnal radiation fog in sheltered valley locales. A
stray shower cannot be entirely ruled out on Thursday, but the
probability remains too low to mention in the forecast at this
time. Temperatures are forecast to start the period with
highs/lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s and upper 40s to upper
50s on Wednesday, warming to the middle to upper 80s and mid 50s
to lower 60s by Sunday. Generally cooler temperatures are favored
to eventually return next week along with the chance for at least
light rain -- that might occur as early as late Sunday or as late
as sometime in the middle to latter portions of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2025
Conditions are VFR through the area and will stay that way for the
terminals through the period. Fog will again bring IFR or worse
conditions to many of the deeper valleys during the late night and
early morning hours of Tuesday, but it is not expected to affect
any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions with winds less
than 10 kts are forecast through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion