Avalon, California Weather Forecast Discussion

798
FXUS66 KLOX 241215
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
515 AM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...24/246 AM.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur this morning west of
Ventura County. The showers and thunderstorms will move to the
north and diminish later this morning. Otherwise skies will be
partly to mostly cloudy with a cooling trend through Friday and
then some warming over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...24/334 AM.
A nearly stationary upper low has produced an unending line of
showers and TSTMs from just west of Catalina Island to the beaches
of Ventura county and then into SBA and SLO counties. This line
has been amazing electrical - producing thousands of lightning
flashes since ydy evening. The cells have been moving very quickly
(near 40 mph) and this has limited the flooding potential even
though the stronger cells have been producing rates upwards of a
half inch per hour. Most areas in western VTA county have received
a tenth of an inch of rain. Most areas in southern and western SBA
county have received a quarter to a half inch of rain.
Fortunately rainfall over the recent burn scars have been much
less. LA county has been left out of all of the action and only
has some marine layer stratus to show for it.
The upper low responsible for this convective will move to the
north during the day and will drag the convective activity up with
it. This will diminish the chc of rain over VTA and SBA counties
and shift it up to SLO county. The dynamics also decrease so the
amount of activity will also diminish.
Look for a 4 to 8 degree drop in temperatures compared to ydy as
the extra clouds and increase on onshore flow team up. Still the
vlys will see max temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s and with extra
humidity it will not feel that pleasant.
The upper low will then move to the SE across the state on Friday.
The increased onshore flow and falling hgts from the low will
allow a decent amount of morning stratus to form across the
coasts. The core of the upper low will pass close enough to the
mtns of VTA county to create a slight chc of TSTMs there in the
afternoon. Max temps will cool further across VTA and LA county as
the hgt falls and onshore flow combine. SLO and SBA counties will
warm in the wake of the departing low.
The upper low will then move due south through SAN county and into
nrn Baja on Friday. The weak lift from the dying low will be
enough to bring a deep marine layer cloud deck all the way into
the vlys. This will cool the csts and vlys another 2 to 4 degrees
(the increased hgts in the wake of the low will allow for some
warming across the interior). This cooling will lower vly temps to
the upper 70s to mid 80s while coastal temps will mostly be in the
mid 70s.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...24/333 AM.
The upper low will spin near Yuma on Saturday. The day should be
pretty dull with just some morning low clouds and max temps 4 to 8
degrees blo normal.
The low finally kicks out on Sunday and very weak ridge moves into
Srn CA on Sunday. This will bring 1 to 2 degrees of warming to
many areas.
An decent upper low (544 dam) swings into the pac NW early next
week. It will not have much of an effect on the Srn CA weather
which will see night through morning low clouds and not much
change in temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...24/1209Z.
At 0515Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 1500 feet with a temperature of 26 C.
Good confidence in TAFs for KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.
Pretty good confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBP, KSMX and KSBA. VFR
cig and vis are likely but there is a 50 percent chc of TSRA
through 16Z. Brief MVFR cig/vis possible under heavier showers or
TSRA.
Low confidence in TAFs for KOXR and KCMA. There is a 40 percent
chc of IFR cigs 12Z-16Z. There is a 20 percent chc of a TSRA
through 16Z
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMO, KLAX and KLGB. There is a 30
percent chc of IFR cigs through 16Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30 percent chc of
BKN006 conds through 16Z. Low clouds may not arrive until 08Z
tonight. Any east winds should be less than 7 knots.
KBUR...High confidence in forecast.
&&
.MARINE...24/157 AM.
For the waters southwest through northwest along the Central
Coast, there is a 40 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds on this afternoon and evening, increasing to 60
percent during the afternoons and evenings on Thursday and Friday.
The best chance of SCA conditions will be 30 to 60 NM offshore.
Inside the southern California bight, there is a 40 percent
chance of SCA levels winds during the afternoons and evenings
both today and Thursday. The best chance of SCA conditions will be
for the western Santa Barbara Channel.
Moisture from a tropical disturbance will bring numerous showers
and thunderstorms to the Santa Barbara channel and the waters
north and west of San Miguel Island through this morning. The
shower and thunderstorm activity will decrease later this morning
and will end late this afternoon. Any thunderstorm that forms
will be capable of producing local gale force winds, rough seas
and lightning.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Hall/KL/ASR
SYNOPSIS...30
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion