Baker Pond Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

509
FXUS66 KOTX 141150
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
450 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder overnight low temperatures Monday Night through
  Wednesday Night.
- Unsettled weather returns this weekend.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with fall like temperatures are expected through
Thursday with colder overnight lows. Wet weather and breezy
winds looks to return next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: The closed low over California today
and a positively tilted ridge nosing into British Columbia will
provide a dry north-northeast flow over the Inland NW. The
pattern changes little on Wednesday as the low slowly moves east
well south of our area. On Thursday the ridge axis migrates
east and becomes centered over the Eastern Washington and North
Idaho. A dry air mass with precipitable water 40-70% of normal
will promote some cold overnight lows with freezing temperatures
for most valleys. With the Moses Lake area still within its
climatological growing season a Frost Advisory has been issued
from 12 AM to 9 AM for each night through Wednesday Night.
Thursday Night through Monday: Ensembles continue to come into
better agreement toward next weekend. On Friday a short wave
trough passes mainly north of the area with a chance of showers
limited to the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle. On Saturday a
short wave ridge moves over the area ahead of a stronger system
developing off the coast of British Columbia. Thus precipitation
chances remain low, but this changes heading into Saturday
Night and Sunday as a stronger frontal system moves through.
This will bring increased chances for more widespread rain and
high mountain snow. Washington Pass has a 65% chance of seeing
at least 2 inches on Sunday, but odds are lower for other passes
given rather high snow levels around 5000-6000 feet. On the
back side of this system snow levels drop towards 3500-4500 feet
heading into Monday. Although currently models show only light
QPF amounts but something that will be monitored. Breezy winds
are also expected with this frontal system. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A breeze northeast wind this morning gradually wanes.
Primarily VFR conditions with morning low clouds breaking up
near the Panhandle and southeast. Middle to high clouds over the
southeast in the afternoon to early evening.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions. JW
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        56  32  59  31  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  32  57  33  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        54  30  54  30  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       58  39  60  38  62  41 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       56  20  59  22  58  23 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  29  57  29  55  31 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        55  35  57  36  57  38 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Moses Lake     59  29  62  30  61  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  37  61  41  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           59  32  62  35  62  37 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Moses Lake
Area.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion