Baldwin, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

768
FXUS65 KGJT 250521
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1121 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and drier conditions continue Thursday before moisture
  increases from south to north throughout the weekend.
- A prolonged period of wet weather is possible this weekend
  through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The blocking high over the Great Basin is keeping things sunny and
cool today on the West Slope. The mid day sounding shows a dry
atmosphere beneath northerly flow. Some fair weather cumulus are
sprouting on the terrain, especially the San Juans, but
precipitation is not in the cards today. Quiet and cool conditions
continue overnight tonight under clear skies, with most of our high
basins in the mid 30s and the desert valleys sitting around the
upper 40s and low 50s.
The ridge gets pushed eastward Thursday, as a cutoff low digs
southward towards Baja. Models sustain the blocky pattern though,
and the eastward progression of the low remains slow to near
stationary. This is expected to send some extra-tropical moisture
north across the Four Corners late Thursday, which is expected to
introduce some cloud cover from south to north Thursday night and
Friday morning. With the ridge overhead Thursday, afternoon highs
return to normal. Overnight lows on Friday morning tick up a few
degrees thanks to the warmer advection and cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
On Friday, a strong jet nosing over the Pacific Northwest will push
the stalled low pressure over California to the Desert Southwest. In
the process moisture will advect into our region especially the
southwest half. There looks to be minimal forcing when the moisture
arrives so expecting showers in the high terrain. On Saturday and
Sunday the low will kick out and start lifting over the area. The
models are in pretty decent agreement with strength and timing of the
wave. Some details still need to get worked out especially if we get
any instability. Moisture and forcing should coincide for this round
therefore precipitation chances increase. PWAT values during this
timeframe range from 150-200 percent of normal, which is modest.
Conditions dry out some for early next week, although another could
quickly move in from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR and light winds prevail the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion