Ballarat California Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS65 KVEF 100731
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1235 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A Flood Watch is in effect for Mohave County, Lincoln County,
  portions of southeastern San Bernardino County and the Spring
  Mountains through Saturday evening.
* Moisture from Tropical Storm Priscilla will bring multiple rounds
  of showers and thunderstorms to the region through Saturday.
* An incoming trough will help to flush moisture from the region as
  it moves through the Southwestern US late Saturday into Sunday,
  leaving cooler than normal temperatures in its wake.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.
Deep moisture from Tropical Storm Priscilla will continue to stream
northward into the Desert Southwest over the next couple of days. We
have already seen widespread showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern and southern areas of the forecast during the past 24 hours
with the highest precipitation totals located in the Spring
Mountains and portions of Lincoln County where several locations
received between 0.50"-0.75" of rain. Elsewhere, rainfall totals
were generally less than 0.25". Going through Friday, we will
continue to see highly anomalous moisture streaming into the region
with PWs around 300% of normal. This moisture combined with moderate
instability will lead to more scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Like we saw on Friday, the greatest threat of flash
flooding will occur where precipitation can train over the same
area. The latest hi-res models indicated that the Spring Mountains
along with portions of eastern Lincoln and Mohave Counties could see
the highest precipitation amounts again today. Away from the
precipitation, we will be looking at another windy day across
Esmeralda, central Nye, and the northern Owens Valley. Wind gusts 35-
40 mph can be expected this afternoon along with areas of blowing
dust.
By Saturday, the incoming Pacific trough will start to bring in a
drier southwest flow and begin to scour out the moisture from west
to east. Shower and thunderstorm chance will remain greatest over
northwest Arizona, but chances will decrease through the day west of
the Colorado River.
By Sunday, the aforementioned trough will have ushered in notably
drier air. Precipitation chances fall below 10% areawide.
Temperatures fall several degrees below normal, and stay that way
through the middle of next week. However, another trough looks to
bring more traditional cool-season precipitation to our northwestern
zones on Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoPs between 20-40%.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Additional rounds of at least vicinity showers and embedded storms
are likely (50 to 75%) throughout most of the TAF period. Confidence
on the timing of showers and thunderstorms directly impacting the
terminal is low. When/if convection reaches the terminal, erratic
gusts of 15-25 knots and brief MVFR/IFR conditions will certainly be
possible. In addition to the precipitation potential, scattered to
broken mid-level clouds will yield CIGs around 8-10kft. Outside of
any convective influences, winds will remain light, with light and
variable winds settling in from a more easterly direction late
tomorrow morning/early tomorrow afternoon.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Lines of showers with
embedded thunderstorms are currently moving northeast through
Lincoln County and another band of showers and thunderstorms
moving through southeastern California through the lower Colorado
River Valley and into northwestern Arizona. Convection is expected
to continue through the overnight period with additional
development on Friday. The main concerns with these showers and
thunderstorms are erratic gusts of 15-25 knots, brief MVFR/IFR
conditions due to visibility reductions due to precipitation, and
CIGs 8-10kft. Farther northwest, dry conditions and gusty
southerly winds of 20-35 knots are forecast.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gorelow
AVIATION...Stessman
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion