Balmorhea, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

516
FXUS64 KMAF 081109
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 555 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- A slight chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms is
  possible today, mainly south of I-10 and in the vicinity of the
  Guadalupe Mountains. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected
  until at least the weekend.
- Above normal temperatures are expected after today, peaking at ~
  4-6 F above normal on Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Upper level ridging continues to sit just west of the region in
Northern Mexico and will slowly slide to the east over the course of
the day today. Afternoon highs inch another degree or two higher
than yesterday with most reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s.
Rain chances remain best over the Davis Mountains and to the east
across the Stockton Plateau and near Big Bend. However, hi-res model
guidance suggests isolated activity developing over the Guadalupe
and Delaware mountains this afternoon, so have added slight chance
PoPs(10-20%).
Activity will quickly decay tonight after sunset. With mainly clear
skies and modest winds, temperatures dip back into the 60s for most
with 50s in the high terrain. By Tuesday, the upper level ridge
moves further east and exerts more influence over the region.
Daytime highs reach into the low to mid 90s for most and rain
chances fall below 5% areawide.
-Stickney
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Wednesday, an upper ridge is forecast to be centered right over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in maximum thicknesses for
this forecast, and perhaps the warmest day this forecast as highs
plateau at ~ 4-6 F above normal.  To the northwest, an upper trough
will reside just north of the Bay Area.
Ensembles don`t do much w/this trough through next weekend, except
eject it through the PacNW/northern Rockies and up into
Alberta/Saskatchewan by Sunday afternoon.  The net effect of this
here will be to shunt the ridge east, initiating a gradual/slight
decline in highs each day as thicknesses decrease.  By Sunday
afternoon, highs should be a couple of degrees cooler than
Wednesday.
Lows in the long term will bump along ~ 3-6 F above normal, courtesy
of a 30 kt LLJ developing each night.
Rain chances in the extended look slim-to-none under the ridge.
Grids stay dry until the weekend, when long term models suggest
shortwaves in zonal flow aloft could introduce a slight chance of
convection each day. QPF looks negligible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
MVFR CIGs have moved into HOB/MAF, but the main deck of clouds is
developing from the south and southeast of MAF where lower CIGs
will hang around into the mid morning hours. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail during the day with southeast to southerly flow around
10-15kts. Occasional gusts possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               88  66  93  66 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 92  65  96  66 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   86  68  91  67 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            89  65  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           85  64  87  65 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    87  63  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    84  56  88  56 /  10   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  67  93  66 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   87  67  92  66 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     90  65  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...93

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion