Baltic, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

266
FXUS61 KOKX 101155
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
755 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will pass well to the south and east through
tonight. A cold front will move through late Thursday night,
with high pressure building in Friday through Saturday. The high
will pass offshore Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front will
then likely slide through Sunday night, followed by Canadian
high pressure early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An offshore frontal zone will be the focus for a wave of low
pressure to pass well to the southeast. As light offshore
returns on radar expand northward, chances for showers will
increase this morning especially across Long Island, NYC, and
coastal CT, then decrease as the wave pulls away this
afternoon. Low levels look stable on fcst soundings so have
removed mention of thunder. ENE winds with some gusts to 20-25
mph should back more to the NE this afternoon. Temps will be
limited by cloud cover and any precip, with highs in the upper
60s/lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Gradual clearing should take place tonight as winds back N and
drier air filters in. Low temps will range from near 60 in NYC
to the upper 40s/lower 50s in outlying areas.
Under plenty of sunshine, Thu should be a warm day, with highs
in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Dry cold fropa takes place late Thu
night, with daytime temps on Fri only a few degrees less warm,
with mid/upper 70s for most places, and lower 70s for south
shore areas of ern Long Island/CT as flow there turns more
onshore in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
No significant changes were made to the forecast database from
this weekend into early next week. The new NBM data was utilized
and shows no large differences from the previous forecast.
The one synoptic feature of interest and could present variation
with subsequent forecasts is the cutoff mid level low forecast to
move southward into the region for early next week. ECMWF is most
aggressive with negative geopotential tendency while other models
are not as deep or fast with the 500mb shortwave. This could
make a difference in regards to the probabilities for showers
and even with the cold air aloft, the possibility of
thunderstorms. Due to uncertainty especially with subsequent
model runs, opted to stay with NBM.
High pressure builds across the Northeast through Saturday and
weakens Sunday with a weak cold front moving through most likely
during Sunday night. Fcst still carries slight chance PoP into
Monday, but with ECMWF showing an upper low moving across there
could be more in the way of showers than is currently fcst (only
slight chance PoP). High temperatures will be in the 70s each
day, with lows generally in the 50s to lower 60s, and some upper
40s possible on clearer calmer night in outlying areas.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure moves along a front offshore through the TAF period.
High pressure will start to build in from the west late in the TAF
period.
Initial conditions are mainly MVFR ceilings with VFR visibilities.
Some very light rain showers or sprinkles are developing and
moving in from the ocean. Forecast has increasing chances of
showers for most terminals, and MVFR stratus expected to prevail
for most terminals except for KSWF, which should be mainly VFR
for their TAF period. Chances of showers continue into the
afternoon east of NYC terminals. Some occasional visibility
reductions to MVFR can be expected. The rainfall intensity
should remain relatively light.
IFR will be possible east of NYC terminals today for a few hours.
MVFR stratus expected to linger through the day and into this
evening for most terminals.
Winds will be E-ENE initially today and eventually become more
NE-N today into tonight. Wind speeds generally near 10 kt with
some coastal terminals near 15 kt for today. Gusts near 20 kt
forecast for most coastal terminals through much of today.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely to refine timing of showers and MVFR, which could
vary a few hours from TAF today into this evening.
Low chance of IFR at times.
Chances for MVFR again late tonight.
Wind gusts may be more occasional in frequency.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday-Saturday: Mainly VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of MVFR stratus at night with a
slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
ENE flow with gusts up to 25 kt also expected on the ocean
most of today, with seas building to 5-7 ft. SCA for the ocean
has been extended into Thu morning as latest guidance indicates
hazardous seas of 5+ ft should linger until at least then if
not into Thu afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected
into the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
E flow 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will help build an E
wind wave component to 5-7 ft at 7-8 seconds. This combination
should lead to a high rip current risk today. Given wind and
wave direction will be parallel to the shoreline, surf height is
expected to top out around 4-5 ft. Despite the wind becoming
more NE through the day today, the rip current risk will be high
given previously discussed conditions. With a more N flow on
Thursday, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected.
A coastal flood advisory has been issued for the back bay
locations of S Nassau, the tidal waters of Staten Island and NE
NJ, where departures should be well into minor flood. Statement
also issued for Jamaica Bay and SW Suffolk, and the north shore
of Nassau and western Suffolk, where water levels may touch
minor thresholds.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ074-179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
     355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM/JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...BG/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion