Barnet, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

156
FXUS61 KBTV 061724
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
124 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and more unsettled weather pattern is in store for this
weekend. Widespread rainfall will occur today, with Vermont seeing
the most consistent precipitation. A few showers are possible
tomorrow, but anything would be brief and much more restricted in
coverage. Drier and cooler weather will prevail for much of next
week as high pressure becomes well established across the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...A cold front has pushed into the region,
bringing a broken line of showers to northern areas. The back end of
a low level jet is in place, and the showers were just strong enough
to mix some of these winds to the ground in places, with observed
wind gusts on Lake Champlain up to around 50 mph. These showers and
the low level jet will pass to the east within the next couple hours
and mostly dry weather will persist for the rest of the night. The
cold front will become hung up over the region later tonight, and
with the boundary staying around, a couple isolated showers may
continue to form. A surface low has developed along this front over
the central Appalachians and it will quickly move into the region
today. It will bring widespread stratiform precipitation to most
areas. However, the front will likely stall somewhere over central
Vermont so southeastern Vermont will likely stay in the warm sector.
Therefore, as the cold front moves through on the backside of the
low, some convection will develop in those areas. While the greatest
instability will exist to the southeast, there remains a low
probability of seeing strong to severe storms there. Instability
will be low, but shear and synoptic forcing will be strong. Rainfall
totals should generally be between a quarter to a half inch, though
there will likely be lower amounts in the ST. lawrence Valley where
the precipitation will struggle to reach. The rain will exit to the
east for most areas by evening, though it could linger over far
eastern areas into the night. Saturday night has to be watched for
fog as partial clearing will interact with a saturated ground and
weaker flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...Large scale troughing builds into the
region for Sunday and Monday, bringing cooler conditions. A vort
looks to pass through northern areas Sunday and cause a few
scattered showers, but after that surface high pressure will build
into the region. Skies should clear by Monday morning for most
areas, but continuing boundary layer winds should keep the frost
potential at bay in the cold hollows Sunday night. As high pressure
builds into the region for Monday, winds will decrease and set the
stage for efficient radiational cooling Monday night. Highs on these
days should be in the 60s to around 70, so enjoy the classic early
fall weather.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 116 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure anchored over Maine and the
Canadian Maritimes next week is expected to produce dry weather
despite largely cyclonic flow aloft. This will allow high
temperatures to climb into the 70s early and midweek and lows to
fall into the 40s to mid 50s. Sometime on Wednesday we could have a
cold frontal boundary cross the region, causing highs to be cooler
in the 60s and lows as cold as the mid 30s and 40s late week. We`re
not anticipating any notable precipitation with the frontal passage
as a thick layer of dry air will be in place preceding it. If any
showers occur they`ll likely be light, few, brief, and isolated to
terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are
occurring across the forecast area this afternoon, lowering
visibilities and ceilings. Gusty winds and hail could also
occur with any thunderstorm. Rain and thunderstorms should come
to an end around 20Z-22Z Saturday with a few localized showers
lingering until around 23Z Saturday-05Z Sunday. Around this
time, skies will begin to clear from northwest to southeast. Fog
is possible at all TAF sites, but most likely IFR conditions
will be at MPV, SLK, and EFK around 05Z-14Z Sunday due to
increased moisture and proximity to a frontal boundary. Variable
and terrain driven winds tonight will become southerly to
southwesterly tomorrow with gusts 15-25 knots possible at MSS.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion