Barr Lake South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

788
FXUS62 KCAE 111747
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
147 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low continues to develop and is expected to strengthen
tonight as it drifts northward, resulting in rain chances along
with cooler and breezy conditions, mainly across the eastern
Midlands. High pressure is expected to move in and prevail
through the middle of next week, with dry weather and near to
slightly above normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cloudy and cool across the area today.
- Rain chances continue, mainly across east of I-20, potentially
  spreading westward tonight.
Rest of today: An upper trough over the Southeast has been able
to close off today, which is allowing a coastal system to
continue to develop and strengthen. The combination of these
features has brought rainfall, generally light, into the central
Midlands early this afternoon. However, drier air working around
the upper trough is leading to some erosion of the western edge
of the rain shield. Some more moderate rain is being seen in the
Low Country where there is some decent frontogenesis occurring
at this hour. Expect periodic rainfall to continue, mainly south
and east of the I-20 corridor. Not sure how much further west
the rain will make it this afternoon as the better forcing
remains closer to the coast and drier air coming in from the
west probably will keep the rain confined to the central and
eastern Midlands. Breezy winds are also likely through the
afternoon, with some isolated gusts of 25 mph or so. That said,
don`t think winds will be consistent enough to warrant an
extension of the Lake Wind Advisory, so allowed that to expire
at 11 am today.
Tonight: The coastal system is forecast to continue to develop
and strengthen to a low overnight. As it develops, it is
anticipated to drift northward. Rainfall associated with this
low is forecast to continue rotating around the center and
moving further inland as the low approaches shore. There is
still some uncertainty with the evolution of this system.
Latest guidance suggests the potential for some heavy rainfall
late tonight due to frontogenesis banding. Depending on the
track and evolution of the low, some of the banding could occur
in the eastern Midlands, but we`ll have to continue monitoring.
There is also uncertainty on how far west the rain shield
reaches tonight again, so the western portions of the forecast
area may not see rain tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cloudy and cool with scattered areas of rain on Sunday.
- Periods of moderate rain possible Sunday morning in the Pee
  Dee and eastern Midlands.
- Drier conditions set in Monday with warmer temperatures.
Sunday and Sunday Night: The forecast for Sunday remains a bit
tricky with some discrepancies between model guidance regarding
two factors, the track of the coastal low and placement of an
area of 850-700mb frontogenesis. There is good general agreement
that the upper low will remain overhead but the coastal surface
low track has more uncertainty. There currently seems to be two
camps; recent global model guidance generally brings the low
just off the NC coast by Sunday afternoon, continuing north
through the day, while CAM`s (like the recent HRRR, HRW, and
RRFS) are a bit more sluggish, keeping it further south through
the day. This impacts the spread in expected rainfall amounts
and intensity as the faster solution brings less residence time
under the expected area of frontogenesis and thus less rainfall,
while the slower solutions bring higher probabilities for
periods of moderate rainfall.
With this discrepancy in mind, it does seem like an area of
moderate to strong 850-700mb frontogenesis could develop near
the NC/SC border toward the Pee Dee region into Sunday morning.
Favorable F Vector orientation to a west to east thermal
gradient and F Vector convergence is seen in model guidance in
this region, leading to the potential for increased mesoscale
lift. This could lead to periods of moderate rain mainly across
the eastern Midlands and into the Pee Dee region through early
Sunday afternoon while the rest of the FA see`s scattered light
rain. This is reflected well in the latest HREF and REFS 24hr
QPF LPMM where pockets of 2-4" are seen near the aforementioned
region. The mean HREF solution keeps 24hr QPF totals closer to
1-2" in this area though, so uncertainty remains in where the
exact location of any potential moderate bands set up. The
remainder of the day then sees continuing scattered light rain
with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rain may
become more isolated overnight and into Monday morning.
Monday and Monday Night: With the previously discussed
discrepancy in model guidance with the track of the coastal low,
some uncertainty is there mainly for Monday morning and if any
light rain chances will persist. In general, it seems the upper
low will begin moving offshore while the coastal low will be
pushing away from the region as well, thus mostly dry conditions
are expected Monday morning at this time. Outside of this,
drier conditions are expected Monday afternoon and through the
rest of the day with retuning sunshine and temperatures into the
upper 70s as surface high pressure builds in.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Near normal temperatures and dry weather continues to be
  expected through the week.
Solid agreement in ensemble and deterministic guidance remains
for the week as a strong upper ridge builds into the central US
with the FA finding itself on its eastern periphery. Surface
high pressure also builds in, keeping temperatures near normal
and bringing dry conditions. It continues to look like a dry
cold front may pass Wednesday with a reinforcing shot of
drier/cooler air for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR to VFR cigs this afternoon continue through much of the
period with scattered light showers.
Light showers have been recently recorded at CAE, CUB, and OGB.
Expect these terminals to see periodic showers this afternoon
with OGB seeing the most consistent activity. Don`t think AGS or
DNL will see rain before 00z. In the meantime, generally MVFR
cigs can be expected this afternoon with periodic and brief VFR
cigs. That said, AGS and DNL are likely to spend more time in
VFR for the first several hours of the TAF period. Rain chances
increase again after about 00z-02z through the rest of the
period, with highest chances being at OGB. Northeast winds
gusting to near 20 kts at times continue through about 00z
before diminishing some and shifting more northerly. Winds are
forecast to continue veering to northwesterly late in the
period and remain breezy.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions likely into Sunday
night as a coastal low wraps moisture back into the forecast
area. Conditions forecast to improve Monday morning, with VFR
expected through mid week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion