Barton, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

356
FXUS61 KPBZ 222329 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
729 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorm could occur this evening with a
passing disturbance. Rain chances remain elevated throughout
week with slightly above-average temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Strong to severe storms could occur this evening
- Rain chances increase late this evening into the overnight
  time period
- Potential for heavy rain in localized areas
---------------------------------------------------------------
Update...
Showers and thunderstorms along an instability gradient moved
across portions of the area late this afternoon. Outflow from
this has generated additional showers and storms across the
region. This activity has been below severe weather thresholds.
A shortwave trough was advancing eastward across Ohio, with
additional showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Instability
remains sufficient to maintain this activity as it approaches
and crosses our area this evening and overnight, though the
severity of the line should diminish. ML CAPE ranged from
500-1000 j/kg this evening according to the latest mesoanalysis.
Theta-e values have diminished where the atmosphere has been
affected by the previous convection, though areas SW-SE of PIT
still have elevated levels. We will continue to monitor the
severe potential for a portion of our area as the line
approaches.
Previous discussion...
Radar and satellite imagery this morning show a large are of
showers and thunderstorms moving through Indiana and western
Ohio, tied to an upper-level trough progressing across the Great
Lakes and Midwest. Over the next 6 hours, convection chances are
expected to expand into eastern Ohio and then western
Pennsylvania within deep southwest flow.
A brief window of severe thunderstorms may open after 5pm
across southern Ohio as low-level shear increases to 35-45kts.
Joint probabilities of effective shear (+40kts) and surface
instability (>500J/kg) reach 25-35% in eastern Ohio, supporting
the Storm Prediction Center`s upgrade to a "Slight" risk. Severe
potential diminishes quickly after sunset due to cooling at the
surface and lingering shower activity disrupting instability.
Damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat, while hail and
tornado threats are low.
Overnight, above-average temperatures are expected with elevated
dew points and cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. Showers
will likely persist beyond midnight. Heavier bands of rain are
possible west and north of Pittsburgh through midnight, with
localized totals potentially exceeding 1 inch. Probabilities of
>1 inch of rain ranges from 30-55% near I-80 and in eastern
Ohio.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Probabilities remain elevated for rain on Tuesday/Wednesday
----------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence remains high that rain chances will persist Tuesday
into Wednesday as a trough lingers over the Ohio River Valley. With
continuing southwest flow, as the trough axis remains
positioned west of the region, probability of measurable
rainfall is above 70%. For Tuesday morning, probabilities are
elevated (between 40-50%) for 1 inch of rainfall for areas north
of Pittsburgh due to the position of the left exit region of
the upper-level jet.
Compared to Monday, the potential for strong storms is
considered low due to the lack of instability. Lightning will
likely be the only threat associated with any developing
thunderstorm.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Elevated precipitation chances through Friday
- Near average temperatures
- Drier conditions expected over the weekend
------------------------------------------------------------------
An upper-level trough will continue to influence the region late
week, keeping rain chances in place through Friday. The greatest
potential for heavier rainfall is expected Thursday morning into
Thursday evening as the low tracks into western Pennsylvania.
By late Thursday, increasing mid- and upper-level dry air will
move in from the west. While lingering low-level moisture will
still support a few scattered rain showers, the risk for heavier
rainfall rates will diminish.
Looking ahead, long-range ensembles suggests a ridge will build
over the Ohio River Valley from Friday through Sunday, bringing
decreasing precipitation chances. Afternoon high temperatures
are projected to run about 5 degrees above average, topping out
in the mid-70s. Overnight lows should remain near average,
especially if clear skies favor radiational cooling in the wake
of passing cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
region this evening. The first area continues to weaken, though
a second line of showers/storms is expected this
evening/overnight with an approaching shortwave trough.
Maintained predominant thunder, with tempo reduced restrictions,
through this evening as this activity crosses. After the second
line of storms this evening, expect a deterioration to MVFR, and
then IFR, with increasing low level moisture in rain.
This rain and IFR conditions will continue into Tuesday as a
second trough crosses the region. Expect rain to taper off from
west to east later in the day, with some improvement to MVFR
cigs.
.OUTLOOK....
Fog and stratus restrictions are possible Tuesday night.
Improvement to VFR is expected early Wednesday before
approaching low pressure brings restrictions and rain back to
the region later Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Building
high pressure should return VFR later Friday through Saturday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...WM/Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion