Baxter, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

384
FXUS65 KPUB 012323
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
523 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry, warm, and calm weather the rest of Today and on Thursday.
- Breezy to windy conditions Friday and Saturday as an upper  level
weather system translates across the Rockies.
- Well above seasonal temperatures on Friday with increasing
coverage of showers and storms Friday night and Saturday over   the
higher terrain.
- Cooler and more unsettled weather remains on tap for the
  weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 452 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Rest of Today and Tonight...
High pressure continues to build in overhead, with above-average
temperatures and dry westerly flow. Given the dry conditions,
temperatures will noticeably cool off overnight, though the plains
will still be a few degrees above normal. Expect lows in the 40s to
near 50 out east, while the mountain valleys fall into the 30s, with
a few of the lower lying areas approaching freezing. Areas of frost
will be possible into early Thursday morning for a few hours over
the San Luis Valley, warranting a Frost Advisory 3am-9am.
Thursday...
Dry west-southwest flow will continue overhead on Thursday, leading
to another dry, warm day across the region. High temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer than today, with mid-high 80s over most of
the plains, and mid-70s over the high valleys and the Palmer. Winds
will keep a southerly component, with a few gusts in the afternoon,
but overall a quiet, clear day is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306
AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Thursday night-Saturday night...Latest operational and ensemble
model data are coming into better agreement with a broad upper
trough digging into the Great Basin on Friday, which then lifts
out across the Rockies on Saturday. Increasing southwest flow
allows for breezy conditions over and near the higher terrain on
Friday, with lee troughing leading to breezy southerly winds
across the plains. The breezy and dry conditions will lead to
elevated fire danger across the area, though recent
precipitation will limit critical fire weather conditions, with
no fire weather highlights expected at this time. Temperatures
are expected to be well above seasonal levels on Friday, with
highs in the 80s to lower 90s expected across the plains, and in
the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Current records for
October 3rd are 79F at ALS in 2024, 87F at COS in 1935, and 94F
at PUB in 2018.
Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring increasing coverage of showers
and a few possible embedded thunderstorms along and west of the ContDvd
Friday night and Saturday, with chances of precipitation spreading east
through the day Saturday. Breezy west to southwest winds across the region
Friday night becomes more westerly and remain gusty as the passing system`s
bora front translates across south central and southeast Colorado through
the day. This will allow for temperatures to warm quickly on Saturday into
the 70s and 80s across the plains, with mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain, save for 30s and 40s across the peaks. Current model data keeps the
best chances of precipitation along the ContDvd with snow levels remaining
relatively high (at or above 10,000 feet) leading to some light accumulations
across the higher peaks. Cooler and much drier air filters into the region
behind the passing system Saturday night, leading to the potential for
sub-freezing temperatures across the higher terrain into early Sunday morning.
Sunday-Wednesday...Latest model data differ on the timing and location of
secondary energy digging back across the Great Basin, as well as the
amount of available moisture across the region into the beginning of next
week. With that said, NBM data keeps temperatures at to slightly below
seasonal levels, along with chances of precipitation areawide into early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are near certain at KCOS and KPUB, and likely at
KALS, during the next 24 hours. With temps getting cool in the
San Luis Valley, I cannot rule out some brief periods of GF
around sunrise at KALS tomorrow morning.
Winds will be quite light and primarily diurnally driven at
each taf sites. Winds may be a bit breezy at KCOS tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Thursday for COZ070-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion