Bays Mountain Reservoir Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

324
FXUS64 KMRX 140229
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1029 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1024 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected this week.
- Rain chances will return over the weekend with a system
  approaching from the west.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Not much has changed with the expected pattern and the forecast
for this week, as we will remain in a dry N-NW flow through much
of the week as a high amplitude ridge will be over the Plains and
MS Valley. But things could get interesting early next week.
Tonight, fog is expected to develop in sheltered valleys and near
bodies of water with the clear/calm conditions. Another couple
days of slightly above normal temperatures can be expected
tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures could be a little cooler and
dewpoints a little lower on Thursday and Friday, mainly in NE
sections for morning lows, as high pressure over Ontario today
drops southward to the Mid Atlantic region by Friday morning.
The pattern shifts over the weekend as the surface high moves to the
NC/SC coast and the mid/upper ridge shifts east of the Appalachians.
This will bring a warmer and more moist air mass to the region
starting Saturday, with rain chances rising on Sunday ahead of an
approaching cold front. The ECMWF`s depiction of a deep,
negatively tilted trough and coupled jet structure grabs our
attention for the potential for thunderstorms and strong/severe
storms. Will keep an eye on this in the coming days, as it will be
dependent on how much low level moisture and instability can be
drawn from the Gulf ahead of the cold front.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Deepening low pressure over the Atlantic and strengthening high
pressure over northern central US, will lead to increased winds
across parts of the valley Tuesday. Strongest winds possible at
CHA with gusts just under 20 KT possible. Winds will be a bit
elevated at TYS and TRI as well, but not as strong. Lake induced
fog could be possible at TRI overnight. The presence of wind may
impact this from happening. Otherwise, VFR and dry conditions will
continue to prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  80  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  52  77  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       53  77  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              47  73  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...KS

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion