Bear Branch Junior High School Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

641
FXUS64 KHGX 141137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- Low daytime relative humidity values and dry vegetation will
  lead to enhanced fire weather concerns through midweek.
- Slight chance of isolated showers and storms Friday and Saturday
  before a weak cold front moves into the area on Sunday ushering
  in a return of drier weather.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
The unseasonably warm and very dry conditions will persist through
at least Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the
Southern Plains. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper
80s to low 90s (cannot out rule some isolated hotter spots) with
afternoon relative humidity values dropping into the 25-40% range.
Winds will remain light helping to mitigate the fire weather
danger somewhat, but more on this in the Fire Weather section
below.
By Thursday, the upper level ridge begins to shift to the east
beginning a period of southerly flow aloft and at the surface
leading to increased moisture moving into the region. This
increase in moisture plus daytime heating will lead to isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. An upper-level low will be
making its way through the Southern Plains Saturday into Sunday,
which will increase PVA over our region. This should allow for a
slight increase in shower and thunderstorms activity Saturday into
Sunday, but still limited enough coverage to cap PoPs around 40%.
The associated cold front will push into SE Texas sometime Sunday
(current guidance ranges from Sunday morning to Sunday night)
ushering in slightly cooler temperatures, but much drier
conditions from the start of the new work week.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions at all terminals with VFR expected to prevail
through the period. Winds today will be light out of the NE with
coastal terminals transitioning to an E/SE flow this afternoon
with the sea breeze.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Light winds and low seas will prevail through the rest of the
week. Winds will be more east to northeasterly through Wednesday,
becoming predominately southeasterly Thursday into the weekend.
There may be a brief period of moderate onshore winds Thursday
night into Friday (around 15kt).
A slight chance of showers and storms returns to the coastal
waters as early as Thursday night with continued chances through
the weekend. A weak boundary will approach, possibly slide
through, the coastal waters late Sunday into Monday.
Fowler
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Afternoon minimum relative humidity values is expected to be even
lower Tuesday and Wednesday with inland areas dropping into the
30- 40% range on Tuesday, and then 25-40% range on Wednesday.
Areas near the coast will be moderately higher, around 50%. Light
northeasterly to easterly winds are expected during this
timeframe, which is helping to mitigate some of the fire weather
danger, but very dry vegetation plus the low RH values will lead
to quick fire starts in the region. Please exercise caution when
working with open flames/equipment that can cause sparks,
especially in dry spots. The Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Danger
index is in the moderate-very high territory.
Some relief is expected Thursday into Friday as winds become more
southerly ushering in higher moisture. Minimum RH values inland on
Thursday will be around 40-50%, then 50-60% Friday and Saturday.
There will even be some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms
Friday into Saturday. A weak cold front is expected to move
into/pass through the area on Sunday bringing a return of the drier
conditions.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  90  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  73  84  76 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion