Beard Cemetery, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

881
FXUS64 KMRX 280543
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
143 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 139 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
- After morning fog, dry and mostly sunny conditions are expected
today.
- Rain chances will return Tuesday and Wednesday, but the tropical
system looks even more likely to stay far enough east for totals to
be limited overall.
- Thursday through the weekend, dry and seasonal conditions are
  expected with daytime highs generally in the 70s and lows in the
  50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Currently early this morning, troughing is just to our east with
Hurricane Humberto well off to the east of Cuba. Tropical Depression
9 is also just north of Cuba and still below tropical storm strength
at this exact time. With high pressure and recent rainfall, patchy
dense fog continues to develop this morning but will likely lift
soon after sunrise. Throughout the day, the tropical system is
expected to become a tropical storm and track over the Bahamas. The
overall pattern aloft is pretty complex with troughing becoming cut
off before merging with the tropical system and a 500mb high to our
northwest. Today is expected to be dry due to the continued
subsidence and drier environment, evidenced by PWATs near or below 1
inch. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, the focus will turn
towards the tropical system, expected to be a hurricane that tracks
east of Florida before turning back out to the Atlantic. This is
given a persistent shift in model guidance with none of the 00Z GEFS
members, for example, showing a track inland. There will still be
some increase in moisture with an upper-low also developing to our
south by Wednesday. Moisture will still be sufficient for scattered
showers and storms, especially further east, but the trend has
certainly been downward than in recent days.
Late in the week and into the weekend, the pattern will turn drier
again with more broad ridging across the eastern U.S. This will also
be coupled with strengthening surface high pressure. With 500mb
heights still around 5,850m (75th to 90th percentile), temperatures
will remain mild during the day. However, the drier air and better
subsidence conditions will allow for temperatures to cool off more
than we`ve seen the last several days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
TYS and TRI have already dropped to LIFR and less with these
conditions expected to continue until at least sunrise. CHA has
remained VFR with these conditions forecast to continue through
the rest of the morning. Fog and low clouds are expected to lift
soon after sunrise at TYS and TRI. Throughout the day, mostly
clear conditions and light northeasterly winds will prevail. Rain
is not anticipated in the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  65  86  64 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  62  83  63 /   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  62  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  60  79  61 /   0   0  20  30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion