Beauty Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

789
FXUS63 KJKL 110920
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
520 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A dry weather pattern with mostly sunny days and mainly clear
  nights will persist through the weekend and into next week.
- Temperatures will gradually warm to slightly above normal early
  next week, with highs approaching the upper 70s on Monday and
  Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure still dominating the weather
over the Ohio Valley and Kentucky. This has led to another night
of mostly clear skies with decent radiational cooling across the
JKL CWA. As a result, a small to moderate ridge to valley
temperature difference was noted through the night along with the
development of fog in the river valleys that has become locally
dense - hence the SPS addressing it. Currently, temperatures
range from the lower 50s on the hills to near the mid 40s in the
low spots. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints
are generally in the mid and upper 40s. The smaller dewpoint
depression this morning is leading to more robust fog development
compared to the last two mornings.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in very good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the deepening of a 5h trough to our
southeast through the weekend while ridging builds just to the
west of the JKL CWA. Troughing to the northeast will combine with
that to our southeast and keep the more active upper levels and
mid level energy to the east of Kentucky - maintaining the benign
pattern for our area well past this weekend. The models` still
small spread supported the NBM as the starting point of the grids
with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just terrain driven
enhancements to the hourly temperatures tonight.
Sensible weather features seasonable temperatures and dry
conditions through the weekend with plenty of sunshine again this
morning thanks to the nearby area of high pressure. However, more
clouds are anticipated for this afternoon owing to a weak and dry
cold front dissipates over the region into the evening. Valley
fog will be on tap again late at night (and early each morning)
along with modest ridge to valley temperature differences nightly.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures tonight along
with extra drying applied to the dewpoints and RH during the
afternoons.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
to the temperatures each night through the next week, along with
a touch of extra drying each afternoon from the mix down of lower
dewpoints aloft. PoPs still appear to be quite limited during the
upcoming week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Confidence is high that seasonably dry and pleasant conditions will
persist across Eastern Kentucky through the end of the long term
forecast period. The forecast guidance suite agrees that much of
this time frame will be dominated by atmospheric ridging and
northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, the region
will be situated between an Atlantic coastal low and building high
pressure. A cold front may approach the area by mid-week, but it is
likely to lack mid/upper level dynamic support. Guidance resolves
its parent features quickly ejecting up into Canada by Wednesday,
leaving the the cold front with only weak forcing upon approach.
Persistent north-northeasterly surface flow in the first part of the
period will keep this frontal passage dry, and its sensible weather
impacts will be accordingly limited to a minor cooldown.
Given the aforementioned model consensus, the baseline NBM data used
to populate the long term forecast grids appears reasonable. The
synoptic-scale ridging at play favors mostly clear skies, an early
week warming trend, and efficient diurnal processes. On Sunday, a
few clouds may stream around the extreme western periphery of the
coastal system into Eastern Kentucky, but increasing subsidence and
dry northerly flow ahead of the building midlevel ridge should
prohibit precipitation chances. Skies should clear out early on in
the work week, allowing for strong diurnal warming/cooling. Expect
highs to creep up from the mid 70s on Sunday towards the upper 70s
on Tuesday, with overnight lows dependent upon elevation. The cooler
valleys will stay in the 40s, with warmer ridgetops in the low 50s.
Radiational valley fog remains likely to develop each night, but the
persistent dryness may progressively reduce the spatial coverage of
the fog by late next week. In the wake of the dry midweek frontal
passage, high temperatures should cool into the upper 60s, with
widespread lows in the 40s.
These conditions are near climatological averages for mid-October in
Eastern Kentucky, and October is known as the dry season here.
Looking into the extended forecast period, it is plausible that
Eastern Kentucky will not see measurable rain through the end of the
next work week. This will lead to drying soils and increasing fuels
with little to no relief in sight. While the past week`s rainfall
provided some relief, fire weather interests are encouraged to pay
close attention to local burn guidance and to check future fire
weather forecast updates as this drier pattern emerges.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites at issuance time with
some patches of clouds around 5 to 6 kft agl in addition to
passing high clouds. VFR should dominate through the period as
high pressure departs and a weakening boundary drops into the
area. Extensive valley fog formation is expected after the 06 to
08Z timeframe with IFR to LIFR in some valley locations with it
probable for some of the fog to lift into many of the TAF sites
at least briefly toward 12Z. There is some uncertainty as to the
duration and extent of visibility reductions of this at the
individual TAF site. Light and variable winds will prevail through
the period, as well.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...JP/GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion