Bedrock, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

493
FXUS65 KGJT 081734
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1134 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms over the higher terrain daily through mid week.
- Thursday and Friday will see widespread showers and
  thunderstorms return with a passing system.
- Temperatures remain near normal to a few degrees above normal
  through mid week, before cooling to five to ten degrees below
  normal by Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Models are in good agreement with satellite imagery depicting the
synoptic pattern slowly shifting east as the deep pacific low
approaches the coast of Northern California and Oregon. A weak
shortwave moving across the region along and north of I-70 has kept
isolated showers and thunderstorms going through the overnight
period. Though some of these storms are still producing brief heavy
rain, stronger steering flow aloft is pushing them quickly eastward
with little total rain accumulation. These storms are diminishing
and should end by around sunrise as the shortwave moves east of the
Divide. Clear skies under the ridge moving in overhead from the west
suggests strong diurnal warming after sunrise, but, along with the
subsidence under the ridge, a dry slot has moved up from the
southwest dropping dewpoints ten or more degrees overnight across
eastern Utah and Western Colorado that will limit convective
activity today. Expect mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon favoring the higher terrain along the I-70
corridor and along the Divide. Temperatures will run near normal to
a few degrees above normal though the mostly clear skies will make
it feel warmer, especially across the southern areas.
The ridge pushes east of the Divide overnight tonight bringing
cooling aloft and better upper-level dynamics to support convection,
and with a surge of moisture out of the Great Basin, Tuesday will
see widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring
the higher terrain across the region with some of the storms moving
down into the lower valleys late in the day. This activity will die
down with sunset, but upper-level dynamics will keep isolated
thunderstorms going through the overnight period. With the increased
clouds and shower activity, Tuesday temperatures will stay near
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The low pressure to the west moves towards the Great Basin
Wednesday allowing moisture advection to persist especially the
southern CWA. Thursday and Friday look to be the most active
days as the low lifts out of the Great Basin and tracks towards
the Northern Plains. The jet begins to impact us on Thursday so
winds increase in general for most places. On these days the
moisture will be at the highest values (PWATs 150-200 percent of
normal) for this event as a dry slot spreads over the region on
Saturday. Models are advertising a tight gradient with the
mositure, which could bisect our area. With that being the case
the eastern CWA have the best precipitation chances over the
western CWA as of now. This moisture plume could shift either
way, so it is something to watch. Saturday might not be
completely quiet as there may still be some low-level moisture
along with steep lapse rates aloft. This storm could shape up to
be the first fall-like system of the season. Although the core
of the cold air does pass to our north so temperatures do not
stray too far from average.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A thin layer of high level smoke is drifting through from
upstream wildfires but this is not impacting surface visibility.
Enough moisture remains in place that afternoon heating will
spark more isolated to scattered showers and storms this
afternoon and early evening. Confidence is not as overly high
but did place PROB30 in the mountain and GUC sites where clouds
are showing some vertical growth. There is also an outside
chance of nocturnal storms forming over the western CWA after
midnight and moving eastward through sunrise.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion