Belcher Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

223
FXUS64 KSHV 111823
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
123 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
- Temperatures are quickly rebounding from the milder highs
   across the region on Friday.
- Dry and warm trend will continue through the end of the
   weekend, heading into the upcoming week.
- Guidance is hinting at a return of PoPs for some by the end of
   the week, into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Another dry and warm day across the Four State Region as
temperatures begin to return to the upper 80`s and near 90
following a brief break on Friday. Temperatures across the region
are sitting between 3-5 deg F warmer this afternoon when compared
to this time yesterday as the upper ridge and the influence of
it`s eastward track begins to move into the FA. At the same time,
calmer winds and dew points still in the mid and upper 50`s have
allowed for temperatures to warm quickly, with the potential that
a few of the area climate sites hit or just pass 90 deg F this
afternoon. By tonight, temperatures will once again fall into a
mix of 50`s and 60`s.
A similar theme will be the case for Sunday as highs in the mid
and upper 80`s, even some low 90`s, become evenly distributed. A
good chance exists for some of the area metros to cruise to 90, if
not just above. This will be the case for much of this week as
daily maxT`s in the upper 80`s and low 90`s are to be expected
with rainfall non-existent under the robust ridge aloft. This
looks to be the theme for much of the week, although deterministic
guidance is showing signs of life for rainfall prospects by the
end of the period, heading into next weekend. Even this far out,
respectable agreement amongst the GFS/ECMWF output for the ridge
to break down with troughing working into the midsection of the
CONUS. Key question to the puzzle will be moisture availability
and timing as we still remain a week out. Bottom line, some sign
of life is emerging for rain chances in the next 7-10 days.
53
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR with few elevated stratocu and
some middeck over W AR pouring S over the upper ridge. These
clouds are eroding with heating, down to few by sunset. Little if
any change in this fall pattern aside from sfc winds continuing
to veer E/SE by Sunday. Warmer and still dry through next week.
/24/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  90  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  58  86  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  90  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  56  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  63  89  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  61  90  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion