Belvedere, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

925
FXUS62 KCAE 080021
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
821 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves south of the forecast area tonight, bringing
cooler and drier air by Monday. Mainly dry conditions are
expected during the upcoming work week, with below normal
temperatures to start, gradually warming as the week goes on.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):
- Cold front is moving through the southern Midlands.
- Isolated showers and storms remain possible along and south of
  the front.
Cold front has pushed through the central Midlands of SC, and is
moving through the southern Midlands and into the CSRA this
evening. The drier air associated with the front is still
lingering slightly, but has moved into the Pee Dee and the
northern Midlands. Dewpoints in the lower 60s and upper 50s
along the SC/NC border will continue moving southward overnight
and should setting into the central Midlands by morning. Areas
along and near the front however will still see moisture
overnight, and can not rule out isolated to scattered showers
and storms in those locations. Winds gusty north of the front at
times overnight. Low temperatures drop into the low to mid 60s
by morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cooler and dry conditions expected early this week with high
  pressure building into the region.
- Breezy conditions expected on Monday
Anomalous surface high pressure will continue to build into the
region early this week with persistent northeasterly flow. This
will continue to filter drier and cooler air into the forecast
area on Monday. The frontal boundary will remain stalled along
the coast and deeper moisture should stay to our east with PWATs
ranging from less than inch in the western Midlands to 1.2-1.3
inches in the eastern Midlands. An inverted trough is expected
to develop on Tuesday in response to an approaching upper trough
which should tighten the moisture gradient across the Coastal
Plain and while we are keeping a dry forecast at this time, it
is possible if that gradient shifts inland a bit more for some
showers to possibly impact the eastern Midlands Tuesday and
Tuesday night.
NAEFS has low level temperatures in the 10th percentile which
should support below normal temperatures during this period with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows ranging from the
upper 50s to lower to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Continued dry weather expected
- A warming trend is expected mid to late week
A generally dry and warming forecast is expected through the
extended period. Ensemble guidance shows the upper pattern
remaining fairly unchanged with a mean trough across the eastern
part of the country with a reinforcing shortwave trough moving
from the Ohio Valley to the east coast on Thursday. This will
push another reinforcing dry frontal boundary through the
region to the coast with another surface high pressure
reinforcing the dry air mass. Ensemble PWATs remain below normal
through the period and this should support the continued dry
forecast. Temperatures are expected to be warming back to near
normal through the end of the week with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 60s. There are hints of lowering upper heights next
weekend which could signal a slight cooldown again.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions this afternoon with some scattered showers, mainly
east of TAF sites.
A cold front has moved through cae/cub, and is situated just
south of OGB, but north of ags/dnl. This front will continue to
push southward through the night, clearing all locations by
morning. Winds will become gusty at times behind the front as it
moves through, and eventually the drier air will filter across
the entire forecast area. Guidance trending more towards vfr
conditions at cae/cub/ags/dnl overnight and into Monday, and
confidence is higher in those locations due to the drier air
moving in. Lower confidence at ogb where moisture may linger,
especially just east of ogb along the coastal plain tonight.
Guidance does show a higher probability of seeing a period of
mvfr/ifr ceilings for a period overnight there beginning around
04z and lasting through the night. All sited vfr on Monday.
Winds will become gusty through the day behind the front Monday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cooler and drier air mass will
settle over the region early this week behind the front.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion