Benham Snow Play Area, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

103
FXUS65 KFGZ 190522
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1022 PM MST Thu Sep 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue
through Friday, before fading out over the weekend. The cooler
temperatures seen for the next few days will be replaced by a
warming trend by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Most convection today is around the periphery of what
remains from the morning rainfall and cloud cover. 18Z KFGZ sounding
indicated some instability is available above the cap, but it is
skinny and will not result in many stronger storms.
The trough off the west coast of California will continue to lift
northeastward tonight and Friday, eventually shearing out and then
retrograding as a ridge builds over the SW. This will bring another
12-24 hours of weak dynamics and outflows to our area, causing a
continuation of showers and thunderstorms. We are not expecting
organized or even prolonged rainfall.
Eventually, the flow aloft becomes anti-cyclonic and activity will
fade out over the weekend and into early next week. There are some
models that indicate another low next week near San Diego, there are
some that don`t. We left in isolated PoPs for now, due to the
uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION...Friday 19/06Z through Saturday 20/06Z...Mainly VFR
expected. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA along and west of a KGCN-KFLG-KPAN
line, pushing NE overnight and into Friday. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA
expected after 18Z. Gusty and erratic winds and brief MVFR
conditions possible in and around TS. Outside of storms, expect
daytime SW-NW winds 5-15 kts becoming light and variable overnight.
OUTLOOK...Saturday 20/06Z through Monday 22/06Z...Mainly VFR expected.
ISO SHRA/TSRA mainly along and south of KFLG-KJTC line on Saturday.
Gusty and erratic winds and brief MVFR conditions possible in and
around TS. Outside of storms, expect daytime S-SW winds 5-15 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Expect thunderstorms to
redevelop over the area by Friday afternoon.  Wetting rains are
likely.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible again on Saturday,
but more confined over the higher terrain.  Minimum RH values will
range between 30-50% Friday and 25-40% on Saturday.  Winds SW-W 5-15
mph during the day, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.
Sunday through Tuesday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible over the higher terrain each afternoon.  Minimum RH values
20-35% Sunday, 15-30% Monday, 15-25% Tuesday.  Winds SW-W 5-10 mph
Sunday, NW-N 5-10 mph Monday, light and variable on Tuesday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion