Bent, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

124
FXUS64 KEPZ 080409
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1009 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1008 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Rapid warm up starts Monday as dry air continues to filter into
  the area. Warmer than normal temperatures through the work
  week.
- Isolated storms possible over the area mountains each afternoon
  through Tuesday, dry elsewhere.
- Moisture returns Wednesday and beyond for chances of isolated
  thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1008 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Mid and upper level high centers now over the Baja and northern
Mexico, with resultant dry westerly flow around the top of those
highs over New Mexico. PWs are sitting at around .7 to .9 inches
and dewpoints are still mostly in the 50s. This was able to
generate a few mountain storms this afternoon. Though PWs will
remain nearly constant Monday, dewpoints will drop into the 40s.
Thus it will be hard to even generate any mountain storms, and
grid POPs reflect this. Much the same story for Tuesday.
Temperatures will warm to well above normal, though latest models
are a tad cooler and isolated triple digit lowland temps not
likely now.
Wednesday and Thursday...upper high center migrates back east
over central Texas in response to huge upper low moving onshore
of the west coast. This will turn our mid-level winds back to the
south and begin importing sub-tropical moisture back over the CWA.
Both GFS and ECMWF show this as a narrow band of moisture both
days from about Deming west, with PWs back above an inch and
dewpoint temps in the 50s. Expect chance of thunderstorms west,
with just a slight chance to the east.
Friday through Sunday...moisture plume spreads east as the upper
low makes in roads over the Great Basin and eventually the
northern Rockies. PWs range from about .7 inches north to 1.0
inches south. Dewpoints will continue in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Expect the chance of thunderstorms most areas, perhaps very low
chances for Hudspeth Co. Models also showing short waves rotating
around base of the upper low which could help with convective
initiation.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions through the period with SCT-BKN250. Surface winds
variable AOB 7 knots overnight, becoming west/southwest 7-10 knots
Monday afternoon. Some CU buildups possible over the mountains
Monday afternoon, but very low chances of any thunderstorms
developing.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Low fire danger the next week ahead as min RH values stay above
critical thresholds and wind speeds remain light each afternoon.
Min RH values will range from 17-25% across the lowlands and
30-45% in the area mountains through the work week and weekend.
20 foot wind speeds will generally be 5-10 mph each afternoon
becoming light overnight. Monday and Tuesday will remain fairly
dry with the best shot for a storm or shower being in the area
mountains. By Wednesday, storm chances increase a bit to allow
isolated storms, potentially even scattered coverage Wednesday
from the NM Bootheel upwards to the Gila region that afternoon.
Continued storm chances persist Thursday and through the weekend.
Looks like generally low end chances each day, not expecting any
widespread storms or flash flooding anytime soon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  96  72  97 /   0  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            60  89  61  91 /   0  10   0   0
Las Cruces               64  92  65  92 /   0  10   0   0
Alamogordo               65  92  66  93 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  69  50  71 /   0  20   0  10
Truth or Consequences    65  91  65  91 /   0  10   0   0
Silver City              60  86  60  86 /   0  10   0  10
Deming                   64  94  65  95 /   0  10   0   0
Lordsburg                65  91  65  91 /   0  10   0  10
West El Paso Metro       71  93  71  94 /   0  10   0   0
Dell City                63  93  64  94 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             67  94  68  96 /   0  10   0   0
Loma Linda               63  86  64  88 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                   67  94  68  95 /   0  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             67  92  67  93 /   0  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  93  69  94 /   0  10   0   0
Jornada Range            65  92  65  93 /   0  10   0   0
Hatch                    64  94  65  95 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 66  94  67  94 /   0  10   0   0
Orogrande                63  91  64  91 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                  53  81  55  81 /   0  20   0  10
Mescalero                53  81  55  82 /   0  20   0  10
Timberon                 51  79  52  80 /   0  10   0  10
Winston                  53  84  55  84 /   0  10   0  10
Hillsboro                62  92  62  92 /   0  10   0  10
Spaceport                62  91  63  91 /   0  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             53  86  55  86 /   0  10   0  10
Hurley                   60  88  60  89 /   0  10   0  10
Cliff                    62  92  62  92 /   0  10   0  10
Mule Creek               59  88  60  88 /   0  10   0  10
Faywood                  62  88  62  89 /  10  10   0  10
Animas                   65  92  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
Hachita                  63  91  64  91 /   0  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           63  90  64  91 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale               61  86  63  86 /  10  10   0  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion