Berclair, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

224
FXUS64 KCRP 201823
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
123 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1248 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Low to medium (20-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Isolated showers are popping up in Nueces and Kleberg Counties but
are quickly maturing in under an hour. Little impacts expected
with these storms. Moisture will increase late Sunday into early
next week, which will lead to a slight increase in precipitation
chances by Sunday. By the middle of the week, rain chances will
further increase to 30-60% as a shortwave trough and associated
boundary approach South Texas. This is still a bit questionable as
the southern extent and the timing of these features are still
uncertain so we do expect that updates will be needed.
Temperatures will continue to be warm, with highs over the Brush
Country nearing 100 degrees. As previously mentioned, any rain or
cloud coverage could help keep temperatures slightly cooler, but
will continue with the NBM temperatures until model agreement is
better.
Tidal levels have remained below advisory criteria for the past few
days but, with the approach of the new moon, will need to be mindful
for the upcoming high tides later this afternoon and again Sunday
morning around 9am and 330 pm. We are expected to reach nearly
1.7 ft MSL with the upcoming tide and slightly higher with Sunday
afternoon`s high tide. This should not create significant
impacts, but we will continue to monitor in case tides rise
higher than anticipated.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle at area
terminals, with the exception of a brief period of MVFR levels at
ALI/VCT Sunday morning due to patchy fog. A few showers could impact
the sites this afternoon, mainly along the sea breeze, but
confidence is low enough to be kept out of the TAFs at all sites but
VCT for now. Otherwise, expect winds to increase and gust to around
15-20 knots this afternoon at ALI/CRP, with light southeasterly
winds elsewhere. Winds will become light and variable again
overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow will persist through
mid-week with 2-3 ft seas, before a frontal boundary moves
through the region. From Thursday, winds switch to be
northwesterly at gentle to moderate strength and seas at near 2 ft,
before switching back to a southeasterly flow this upcoming
weekend. There will be daily chances for showers and storms
throughout the western Gulf (30-50% chance).
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  91  76  92 /  10  40  10  30
Victoria          71  92  73  93 /  10  40  10  40
Laredo            75  98  76 100 /  10  10   0  10
Alice             73  94  73  97 /  10  40  10  20
Rockport          78  90  79  91 /  10  40  20  40
Cotulla           75  97  75  99 /   0  10   0  10
Kingsville        74  92  74  94 /  10  50  10  30
Navy Corpus       80  88  81  89 /  20  40  30  40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AE/82
AVIATION...ANM/88

NWS CRP Office Area Forecast Discussion