Bethany Beach, Delaware Weather Forecast Discussion

045
FXUS61 KPHI 230819
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
419 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front tracks north of the area Tuesday. A cold front will
gradually track through the region on Wednesday into Wednesday night
before stalling south of the area on Thursday. This front may lift
back north as a warm front on Thursday night before another cold
front passes through late Friday into Saturday. Broad high pressure
then approaches from the west on Sunday into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridging along the east coast will settle offshore early this
morning. A light southerly flow tonight will advect higher moisture
into the region, setting up for low clouds to develop. An isolated
shower is also possible in the Poconos.
A warm front will lift through the region this morning, leading to a
warmer day with temperatures peaking in the 80s, but 70s Poconos and
shore points. An approaching cold front and shortwave then bring the
risk for showers and even a few thunderstorms beginning late this
afternoon, primarily near and northwest of the I-95 corridor. The
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) for severe thunderstorms was expanded to include
almost all of the area near I-95 and northwest and south of I-80 in
Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Additionally, the risk area was
expanded to the southeast slightly to include most of the Eastern
Shore in Maryland, central Delaware, and southwestern New Jersey.
The primary threat with any severe thunderstorms would be damaging
straight-line wind gusts.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the pre-frontal trough
will continue into the evening hours from west to east before
diminishing after midnight tonight with the loss of diurnal heating
as the night progresses. Lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front straggling the southern NY border lingers Wednesday as
a low creeps across the Ohio River Valley. The subsequent southerly
flow will combine with weak surface troughing to bring a chance (20-
30%) for some showers during the day with greater chances (40-70%)
for showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday night. Temperatures
remain mild across the region Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s, about 5-10 degrees above climo for this time of the
year. Dew points look to increase as well, making it feel more muggy.
The main surface low and associated cold front will arrive across
the region Thursday, bringing our greatest chance (50-80%) for
showers and thunderstorms across the region. Afternoon temperatures
will be more moderate thanks to more widespread rainfall with highs
only reaching the mid 70s to around 80 for much of the region. Areas
across the southern Delmarva that may not see the rain until later
in the afternoon and evening could warm into the mid 80s. Dew points
will remain elevated, making it an overall warm, muggy, and rainy
day. Combined precipitation totals Wednesday and Thursday will be
around 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will then cross through the area on Friday before
stalling south of the area through the weekend. With the front
remaining in close proximity through Saturday, this will keep at
least the mention of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to
continue through Saturday night...greatest likelihood further south
in closer vicinity to the stalled front.
What happens beyond this time for Sunday and into early next week is
yet to be seen and highly uncertain. Broad high pressure will
develop over the center of the country, gradually building east with
time. Eyes will also be on the tropics as most global forecast
guidance has been consistent on developing a tropical cyclone
somewhere over the western Atlantic early next week with a cut-off
upper level low over the Deep South. How all these features interact
with one another will ultimately determine what kind of weather we
encounter beyond Sunday. More to come on this in the coming
days...
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Early this morning...VFR for most of the night. Light southerly flow
will result in some stratus developing, potentially bringing
IFR/MVFR CIGs to most terminals. Confidence is quite low given some
models have no stratus developing at all, while some bring ceilings
as low as FL004. Given that the probabilistic guidance hints at over
a 50% chance of at least IFR CIGs at the I-95 terminals and RDG/ABE,
ended up putting either a prevailing group or TEMPO group to cover
the threat, with the most likely time of restrictions coming from
09z-13z. Kept KACY and KMIV VFR through the night, but cannot rule
out lower CIGs at these sites. Mid and high level clouds over the
area tonight should prevent fog development and VSBY restrictions.
Southerly winds around 5 kt or less. Low confidence.
Today...Primarily VFR. Any MVFR/IFR CIGs quickly lift and mix out by
the late morning. Showers and thunderstorms begin to move towards
the Lehigh Valley terminals between 22z-23z, but only around a 40-
60% chance of showers and 20-30% chance of thunderstorms. Scattered
SHRA/TSRA get to the I-95 corridor after 00z. South/southwest winds
around 10 kt.
Tonight...VFR conditions for most of the night after showers and any
thunderstorms dissipate. Sub-VFR conditions possible again with low
stratus/fog potentially developing late in the overnight hours.
Southwest winds around 5 knots or less. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Thursday night...Sub-VFR conditions probable at
times. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms primarily in
the afternoon and evening hours. Patchy fog/mist also possible.
Friday through Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions likely, especially
early Friday, before improving by the weekend. A chance of showers
to continue through Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Tuesday morning.
Early this morning, south winds around 10 kts with fair weather and
seas 3 to 4 ft.
Today, southerly winds 10 to 15 kts with seas around 4 ft in the
morning but increase to around 5 feet, mainly off the coast of New
Jersey. Small Craft Advisory in effect beginning at 2 PM EDT. Lower
seas south of Cape May and sub-SCA winds in Delaware Bay will result
in no headlines for those zones.
Tonight, seas continue to linger around 5 feet north of Cape May.
SCA remains in effect through 5 AM Wednesday as a result. Otherwise,
southwesterly 10-15 kts expected with gusts up to 20 knots. A few
scattered showers (20-30% chance) possible, most likely off the
central New Jersey coast.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected, however a
brief period of SCA conditions may occur Thursday night ahead of a
cold front. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
possible.
Rip Currents...
On Tuesday, winds turn more southerly at 10 to 15 mph with
breaking waves 2-4 feet. Southeast swells continue with a 10 to
12 second period. As a result, there is a HIGH risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents for
the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches.
Conditions will be similar on Wednesday, though with more of a
southerly flow, the threat for the development of dangerous and
life threatening rip currents may be a bit less for Delaware
Beaches. Currently expecting a HIGH risk for the development of
dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore
and a MODERATE risk for Delware Beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ014-024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ450>453.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJL
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...MJL
AVIATION...AKL/MJL
MARINE...AKL/MJL

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion