409 FXUS63 KLMK 110005 AFDLMKArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 805 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
...Forecast Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Pleasant weather continues, with partly cloudy skies this afternoon into Saturday.
* Dry conditions are expected through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s.
* Gradual warming trend continues early next week, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 for Monday and Tuesday.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 804 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Another quiet night expected across the area with light and variable winds and occasional high clouds. Won`t be as chilly as last night, but will still see some lows in the low to mid 40s for many. Milder spots will be in the upper 40s to around 50.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Upper level ridging remains positioned over the central CONUS this afternoon. A stacked low is rotating southeast over the Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front cutting through WI, IA, and KS. The low is forecast to steadily weaken through tomorrow as it slows over the eastern Great Lakes. The moisture-starved cold front will eventually sink into our area tomorrow. We will only see some high clouds this afternoon and evening, and likely some additional mid and high clouds tomorrow. A period of clearing does look likely later tonight after the high clouds have passed, so we`re looking at a cool night with variable cloudiness. Lows Saturday morning will range through the 40s, with near 50 in southern KY.
Light NNE low-level flow is reestablished Saturday and Saturday night. The trend will be for decreasing clouds, with mainly clear conditions Saturday evening and overnight. Overall, a pretty nice day with partly sunny skies at highs in the low to mid 70s. Clear overnight with Sunday morning lows in the 40s.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 312 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
The weather continues to look dry and pleasant for several days next week. Sunday through the middle of next week, upper level ridging steadily building into the region from the southwest. Sunday into Monday, a powerful low pressure system will race from the northern Plains to Hudson Bay. This system`s cold front will likely stay off to our northwest early in the week. Meanwhile, stationary sfc high pressure over eastern Canada will gradually weaken with time. Eventually, it looks like we could get a dry front through here by the middle of next week. Forcing just looks really weak with the ridging in place, and with persistent NE low-level flow, moisture advection will be quite limited as well.
The end result is likely multiple days of dry weather with gradually warming temps through Tue-Wed. Then, a modest cool down will be possible Wed-Thu in the wake of a frontal passage. Highs in the mid/upper 70s should be common for Mon/Tue, with upper 60s and lower 70s more likely by Thursday.
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.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 731 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
VFR conditions expected to prevail through this TAF cycle. Winds will mostly be light and variable through tomorrow, with low confidence in any more specific wind direction. Other than some high clouds this evening, and then few-sct cu around 5-6 k feet tomorrow, skies should be mostly clear/sunny.
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.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None.
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UPDATE...BJS SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...BJS
NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion