Big Flats New York Weather Forecast Discussion

348
FXUS61 KBGM 091801
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
201 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will persist through the first half of the weekend.
Areas of frost and sub-freezing temperatures are expected
tonight into Friday morning. A coastal system will likely bring
rain to the area late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Abundant sunshine is present this afternoon as high pressure
remains in control. However, with a cool airmass in place (850mb
temperatures only around -2C), temperatures are well below
normal for this time of the year as afternoon highs will only be
in the upper 40s to upper 50s.
The setup for a widespread freeze remains nearly perfect for
tonight with ideal radiational cooling conditions present as the
high pressure system will be directly overhead. Lows are
expected to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s for most of the area,
with some lower 20s across the usual colder spots, especially
northern Oneida County and parts of the Catskills. Freeze
Warnings remain in effect for most of the area, with the
exception of Yates, Seneca, and southern Cayuga counties (Frost
Advisories are in effect for those three counties).
High pressure will move to the east on Friday, which will result
in a southerly return flow and warmer temperatures (closer to
normal for this time of the year). Highs are expected to be in
the upper 50s to mid 60s under sunny skies once again. Then
seasonably cool temperatures are expected Friday night with lows
in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The warming trend will continue on Saturday with highs expected
to be in the 60s for the large majority of the region. Skies
will start out mostly sunny in the morning, but cloud cover will
increase ahead of an approaching coastal system. This system
will interact with an upper low that drops south over the Great
Lakes. With an increase of moisture being advected into the
region, some showers may move into the region overnight Saturday,
though chances look better for late Sunday into Monday.
Confidence continues to increase in seeing rainfall from a
coastal low pressure system moving northward interacting with
an upper level low dropping southeastward from the Great Lakes.
Timing remains a bit uncertain, as it is possible that most of
the rain holds off until later in the day Sunday, or even Sunday
night. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, but
this will largely be welcome rainfall due to the large rain
deficit we have seen. What also remains uncertain is how far
west this rainfall gets; it is possible that the heaviest rain
remains east of the area/closer to the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some lingering rain showers will be possible on Monday as the
low moves further offshore, but the general trend will be rain
tapering off from west to east as the day progresses. Wraparound
moisture may be enough to keep some lingering showers around
into Tuesday, but otherwise the midweek period is trending
drier.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals over
the next 24 hours as high pressure settles in overhead. Winds
will become light and variable this evening and overnight before
becoming more southerly toward the end of the TAF period.
While clear skies and light winds at the surface would normally
be a good setup for low clouds/fog early tomorrow morning
around ELM, the air mass in place is very dry and winds remain a
bit elevated aloft, leading to a low chance of development.
Outlook...
Friday afternoon through Sunday morning...Mainly VFR; areas of
morning low clouds/valley fog.
Late Sunday into Monday...Watching a coastal low with showers
possible and associated restrictions.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ009-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ015>017.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion