Big Talbot Island State Park Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

496
FXUS62 KJAX 151758
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
158 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- High Rip Current Risk through Friday
- Small Craft Advisory for portions of the Coastal Waters
- Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Highest impacts: St. Johns
  River Basin central Duval County southward.
- Isolated Thunderstorm Potential Late Sunday
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Low to mid level high pressure ridge from the MS valley northeastward
to the Great Lakes will shift slightly eastward through, with the
pressure gradient weakening slightly. The deep layer flow from
1000-500 mb will remain north to northeast at about 10-15 kt with
PWAT values of about 1 inch. Current satellite shows sct-broken
cumulus and stratocu which will dissipate late today. Should see
some occasional clouds mainly near the coastal tonight based on
satellite imagery and model fields, but otherwise mostly clear
skies tonight with little if any prospect for fog given the
boundary layer is likely to be well- mixed. The mostly clear skies
tonight should allow for good cooling and bring lows to fall to
the mid/upper 50s for interior SE GA and the Suwannee River valley
down to near Gainesville, while other areas fall to the lower
60s. The coast will be the warm region with lows in the mid to upper
60s. These temps are near the norm if not a deg or two lower than
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
High pressure to the north and coastal troughing will keep breezy
northeasterly winds near the coast Thursday into Friday. By Friday
evening, the high will move towards the northeast, shifting
onshore winds to more easterly while decreasing slightly. Drier
air infiltrating from the north will keep PWATs near or just below
1.0 inch, no precipitation expected during these two days. High
temperatures will be very Florida-fall like, reaching the mid to
upper 70s closer to the Atlantic coast, and low 80s further
inland.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Mainly dry conditions continue during this period, with a 20% chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening
as a weak front moves through the area. Strong thunderstorms appear
unlikely at this time due to lack of supportive dynamics with a
later approach in the evening. Temperatures will generally rise
into the lower to mid 80s inland and upper 70s to around 80 degrees
near the Atlantic coast through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Brief MVFR cigs may exist around 18z-20z inland and near SGJ, but
should fairly quickly diminish as the most area of moisture shifts
south of the TAF sites this afternoon. Prevailing VFR expected
thereafter. Sfc winds northeasterly up to about 10-15 kt with a
few higher gusts. Winds will decrease tonight. Northeast winds
start becoming about 5-11 kt on Thu morning with VFR cumulus by
the late morning and aftn.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Winds and seas have risen as expected with a bit more wind at
SAUF1 recently, which is not uncommon in this weather regime.
Recent SAUF1 report showed 22 kt, and this wind speed will more
or less remain that way for several hours which prompted a small
craft advisory for marine zone AMZ454. The advisory goes through
10 PM. The offshore advisory remains in place at this time but is
on the marginal side given that 7 ft seas are probably quite a
ways offshore and the winds are roughly in the 15-20 kt per
guidance, ASCAT, and satellite derived winds. Otherwise, for the
broad synopsis picture, northeast winds and building seas expected
through Thursday and likely to persist into Friday. Higher seas
offshore waters has prompted a Small Craft Advisory. Elevated seas
will persist through Friday evening. Winds will shift to the
southeast and south over the weekend as a cold front approaches.
The frontal passage is forecast for Monday with winds
strengthening just ahead and behind this frontal passage.
Rip currents: rough surf from increased winds resulting in a high
risk of rip currents. This will persist rest of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Marginal minor flooding during the times of high tide through
tonight, especially prone areas in the St Johns River as trapped
tides and northeast flow maintains these elevated levels, mainly
around the 1.4 to near 1.7 ft MHHW level. Minor flooding may
persist at least in the St Johns River the next couple of days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  77  64  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  81  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  66  80  67  78 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  58  85  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  61  84  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-325-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ454.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion