Birch Tree, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

294
FXUS63 KSGF 050456
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1156 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will move through the region Friday resulting in
  rain chances (40-70%) though rainfall amounts will be largely
  less than a quarter inch. A few stronger storms will be
  possible over southern Missouri.
- Pleasant weekend ahead with highs in the 70s with mostly sunny
  skies...followed by a warming trend with highs reaching back
  into the upper 80s to potentially 90 degrees mid to late next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
The major synoptic system impacting our weather into the
weekend will be a upper trough over eastern Canada into
the Great Lakes.  The first major wave of energy rotating around the
trough has an associated cold front that exited into northern
Arkansas this morning...with another wave approaching the ND-
Canadian border pushing a second surface front southward that will
impact the region on Friday.
Temperatures: the mercury had been slow to climb this morning
due to a stubborn post frontal band of stratus supported by
850 mb convergence.  Skies in behind are clear and with low level
warm advection associated with an 850 front the region will
likely see afternoon high temperatures realized later than normal as
the band passes.
Despite clear skies tonight, the warm advection and weak
southerly winds will once again maintain overnight lows in the 60-65
degree range.
Cloud cover and associated with the second front along with post
front cold advection will result in a northwest to southeast
gradient of high temperatures that will range from the mid 60s over
west central Missouri to near 80 over south central Missouri.
Rain/Thunderstorm Chances Friday: the good news is that the front
will likely bring at least scattered showers in the morning to
southeast Kansas through the Lake of the Ozarks as moisture
convergence increases and to along the I-44 into the early
afternoon.
Models are inconsistent with the amount of elevated instability
into the afternoon as the column tends to saturates but enough
confidence exists to raise a concern over the potential for
thunderstorms south of I-44, with better chances for storms south of
Highway into the evening where some stronger storms may yield some
limited chances for hail to the size of quarters.
The bad news is that despite precipital water climbing into the 1.25
to 1.5 range, the lack of strong convection will keep rainfall
amounts less than a quarter inch for most...ma
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Ensembles are in strong agreement that a dry, northwest flow
aloft will set up for the weekend. Highs in the 70s and lows in
the 40/50s look likely as surface high pressure resides over
the Ohio Valley and northeasterly winds occur. Monday morning
currently looks the coldest with lows down into the lower 40s,
especially east of Highway 65 (50-70% chance of low temps less
than 45).
However, a pattern change does begin to take shape next week
with upper level ridging across the eastern rockies and central
plains. This will lead to warmer air aloft spreading into the
area. Latest NBM data suggests highs returning back into the
upper 80s to lower 90s as early as next Wednesday but more
likely by next Thursday. Rain chances currently remain less than
10 percent which will not help the flash drought developing
across the area given the updated Drought Monitor that came out
today.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
VFR flight conditions overnight ahead of an approaching system.
This system is expected to bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area on Friday along a frontal passage.
Periods of MVFR to IFR flight conditions can be expected as a
result of reduced visibilities and ceilings. Additionally,
variable winds overnight turn out of the north with the frontal
passage between 10-14Z. A few wind gusts approach 20 knots
behind the front. Scattered showers linger into the later part
of the TAF period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Perez

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion