Bishop, California Weather Forecast Discussion

827
FXUS65 KVEF 152255
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
355 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warm and dry weather will continue through Wednesday.
* Showers and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night through
  the weekend, with Thursday and Friday being the highest potential
  for widespread rainfall and impacts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.
High pressure remains over the region through Wednesday, resulting
in mostly clear skies, light winds, and warming temperatures. By
Wednesday afternoon, high temperatures will run slightly above
normal. With increasing moisture, temperatures after Wednesday will
drop back to normal or below normal levels.
Increasing confidence for a dramatic shift in the weather pattern
the second half of the week as an upper level trough sitting off the
California coast interacts with tropical moisture associated with
Mario. While the tropical system itself will remain offshore,
moisture will advect into the region on southwest flow starting
Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday, significant moisture with
over 200% of normal PWATs will be situated over the area, with high
probabilities for over 1.00 inch PWATS for areas south of the I-15
as well as  in Death Valley by Friday. Meanwhile, models are coming
into better consensus that forcing will increase as the offshore low
shifts into south-central California. With ample moisture and decent
upper level support, increasing PoPs are expected Thursday and
Friday, with the highest chances for precipitation and impacts over
San Bernardino County into Death Valley and far southern Nevada
where the best forcing will set up. There remains a significant
amount of uncertainty beyond that as small scale features Thursday
and Friday define exact amounts and potential impacts. There is at
least a marginal risk for heavy rain leading to flash flooding in
San Bernardino County into Death Valley and far southern Nevada,
with WPC Excessive Rainfall highlighting this Thursday into Friday.
Additional details and impacts beyond that remain unclear at this
time.
Moisture will linger into the weekend, but should wane compared to
Thursday and Friday. Forcing will also be less robust over the
weekend, which means showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday and Sunday but will follow a more typical monsoon-type set
up with diurnal, low-end convective trends and thunderstorms
favoring the terrain.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Typical light wind patterns are expected through the
period. Light east to southeast winds will continue into the early
evening. Speeds will generally remain under 10KT, though a few
upticks with gusts to around 15KT are possible with the southeast
winds. Southwest winds under 8KT will return after sunset. A
repeat of today`s winds is expected Tuesday. Skies will be clear
with temperatures under 100 degrees.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds will generally
follow typical daily directional patterns with speeds of less than
10KT through the forecast period. Breezy south to southeasterly
winds will continue through sunset in the Owens Valley including
KBIH with gusts of around 10KT, then winds will slowly diminish.
Winds on Tuesday will be similar to today`s winds. Skies will be
clear areawide.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Nickerson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion