Black Creek, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

987
FXUS61 KBUF 292152
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
552 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through the entire
week and into the coming weekend. A dry cold front will bring a more
seasonable airmass around midweek with some risk for nocturnal frost
at the higher elevations. Temperatures then climb back above normal
later in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong 1033 mb high will build down across the eastern Great Lakes
through the period.
High level clouds will temporarily increase from the south through
this evening north of the tropical low, but thinning of this cloud
cover will take place overnight. Typical nocturnal valley fog can
also be expected tonight.
Fair and warm weather expected Tuesday with highs in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over northern Ontario will move southeastward
Tuesday night. The high will move over New England Wednesday night
through Thursday, before moving to the east coast Friday. The
airmass will bring a short period of cooler weather to the eastern
Great Lakes region. This will translate to below normal temperatures
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. In fact, as the high moves
overhead Wednesday night, minimum temperatures are expected to reach
the 30s away from the Lakes, possible the upper 20s in the Black
River Valley. Confidence is increasing that frost will develop and
therefore Frost Headlines may be needed. The greatest confidence is
east of Lake Ontario and across the western Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes region Wednesday night. While not as cold on Thursday night,
patchy frost is possible in some inland locations.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong ridge and surface high pressure will persist across the
region from Friday through the weekend, bringing continued dry and
warm weather to our forecast area.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will prevail through tonight with SCT-BKN cirrus north of
the western Atlantic tropical systems, as strong surface high
pressure remains anchored over the region.
Fog development is possible after 02z in the Southern Tier
valleys, though the cirrus shield could limit this potential.
Confidence of fog developing at KJHW is low.
Tuesday, morning valley fog will burn off within a few hours after
sunrise. Otherwise VFR conditions expected to continue. High clouds
from overnight will clear out from the northwest to the southeast
through the first few hours of the morning.
Outlook...
Tuesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local
IFR possible each late night through the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain directly over the eastern Great
Lakes through tonight bringing light, variable winds.
A stronger area of high pressure will begin to build southeastward
from northern Ontario tonight, then drift across the Northeast
through much of the week. Northeast winds will increase starting
Tuesday as the gradient between this high and the western
Atlantic tropical systems. This will likely cause SCA conditions
to develop on at least a portion of Lake Ontario, though the
chop will notably increase along the southern portions of both
lakes.
A dry cold front moving across the lakes Tuesday night will cause
northeast winds to strengthen with more solid and widespread SCA
criteria expected. Winds and wave action will relax some during the
day Wednesday though remain elevated through Wednesday night.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PP/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...PP/SW/TMA
MARINE...PP/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion