Black Jack, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

934
FXUS63 KLSX 291901
AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
201 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions will continue for the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tuesday Night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
No significant changes have been made to the short term forecast.
Very patchy fog is possible again tomorrow morning. However, since
lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, the chance of development
and its coverage (if any) will be lower than this morning. Otherwise
with mid and low-level ridging still centered overhead, tomorrow`s
forecast will be very similar to today`s with highs near 90 degrees
and dry conditions.
Jaja
&&
.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The best word to describe the rest of the forecast is `steady`.
Though ridging at all levels will slide east from mid to late week,
its influence will still hold strong in the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Because of this, highs will remain well within the 80s with lows
dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s each night. No rain is in
sight through early next week, either. Despite an expansive upper
level trough dipping into the region, a sub-optimal path of the best
forcing and minimal if any moisture advection keeps rain chances at
bay. If the low-level ridge is able to slide east enough to unlock
Gulf moisture for us this may change, but as of this forecast that
does not look like the likely scenario. Ensembles are not keen on
the potential for rain either, with even the most optimistic 6 hour
precipitation slot peaking at 25% early Tuesday morning. In short,
expect warm and dry weather until further notice.
Jaja
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions with light winds and mostly clear skies will
prevail through the TAF period. Elected to leave fog out of the
forecast tonight given the lack of impactful fog this morning and
that conditions tonight will likely be less conducive for fog
formation. Will continue to monitor and update as needed.
Jaja
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&
$$
WFO LSX

NWS LSX Office Area Forecast Discussion