Black River Pond New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

704
FXUS61 KPHI 150752
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
352 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area today with strong high
pressure building in to close out the week. A low pressure
system will cross the region from the west Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through early this morning, we remain partly cloudy across the
area with the clouds decreasing from west to east. Dry weather
is anticipated to continue. Winds are around 10-20 mph.
For today, our stubborn low clouds really lessen through
daybreak. The remainder of the morning, we see some lingering
mid and high clouds that continue to decrease into the afternoon
from west to east. By the afternoon, we see more sunshine with
a mostly clear sky. There will be a cold front approaching from
the northwest that sinks southeast through our area today. This
cold front lacks a lot of moisture, so no precip is expected and
it does not add much in the way of additional cloud cover.
Winds will once again become increasingly gusty after the front
passes and we get some noticeable cold air advection where
northwest winds may gust up to 20-30 mph in the afternoon. Even
with the cold front moving through, our afternoon highs are
expected to be mainly in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Behind the cold front, we see a high pressure system building
in from the Great Lakes region which continues to allow cold air
advection to persist into Wednesday night. Overnight lows will
be in the mid 30s to mid 40s for most. Even with some spots
falling into the mid to upper 30s tonight, there is not a lot of
concern for frost. The colder spots for tonight have already
ended their growing season like the Poconos for example. Wind
gusts still near 20-25 mph tonight will also limit any potential
for frost. We stay mostly clear overnight with the high
pressure system building in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure will remain centered over the Great Lakes
on Thursday, keeping a brisk northwesterly wind in place, but
otherwise providing plenty of sunshine. Highs Thursday in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
The high only moves slightly further east Thursday night,
keeping enough gradient overhead to prevent a strong radiational
night thanks to a continued breeze, despite clear skies. Lows
Thursday night in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
Even Friday, the high will still be just to our west, so while
the gradient is finally starting to relax more, the northwest
flow will continue. Otherwise, plenty of sun, so highs Friday
should reach the low to mid 60s.
Friday night may try to radiate as the high finally moves nearly
overhead, but warm advection will already be starting aloft. Lows
Friday night in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A subtle warm front will cross the region on Saturday, providing
a bit more cloud cover but also boosting temps. Highs Saturday
rising to the mid to upper 60s.
Southerly flow becomes a bit more dominant on Saturday night
which may preclude strong radiational cooling. Additional cloud
cover may also begin moving overhead as a stronger storm starts
developing to our west. Thus, lows Saturday night should remain
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Despite increased cloud cover ahead of the aforementioned
strengthening storm to our west, stronger southerly flow should
also provide enough warm advection to make Sunday the warmest of
the forecast period. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 70s.
The aforementioned system likely doesn`t start spreading rain
into the region until Sunday night, but with southerly flow and
plenty of clouds, it should be the mildest night of the forecast
period. Lows Sunday night in the low to mid 50s.
The storm pulls northeastward across the region Monday. Exact
timing still a little uncertain, but right now odds favor most
rain occurring earlier in the day, with some drying and maybe
even clearing possible later on. With weak cold advection
behind it, not to mention the rain and showers, highs Monday
should stay in the mid to upper 60s.
Depending on the speed of the departure, Monday night could keep
a few showers and many clouds around, or could see partial
clearing. For now keeping lows Monday night in the mid to upper
40s.
Upper trough may linger through Tuesday, which could keep clouds
and even a few showers nearby, but not a washout. Highs Tuesday
right now look to be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 12Z...Lingering MVFR CIGs through 07Z or so, for some
of the I-95 terminals. KMIV and KACY look to hold onto MVFR CIGs
into 09Z or so. KABE/KRDG/KPNE/KILG have already gone VFR with
the other terminals joining through the rest of the night from
west to east. N-NW winds around 10 kts or less. Moderate-high
confidence.
Wednesday...VFR with SCT high clouds decreasing through the day.
N-NW winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
with 20 gusts in the afternoon. High confidence.
Wednesday Night...VFR with SKC. A mainly NNW wind around 10 kts
with occasional gusts to 20 kts. High confidence.
Outlook...
VFR should prevail Thursday through Saturday night. Sub-VFR
possible late Sunday as an approaching front increases the risk
of showers.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisories on the Atlantic coastal waters are
in effect into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect
on the Delaware Bay at 4 PM today and continues into tonight.
For today, a north-northwest wind around 10-15 kt in the
morning will increase to 15- 20 kt in the afternoon with gusts
up to 25 kt following a frontal passage. Seas of 6-8 feet.
Overnight, northerly winds around 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30
kt. Seas remain at 6-8 feet. Fair weather outside of SCA
conditions.
Outlook...
Small Craft Advisory was extended thru Thursday due to continued
northwesterly gusts to 30 kts and ocean waves up to 8 feet.
SCA likely will need additional extension through at least
Thursday night if not partly into the day Friday as winds and
seas will take some additional time to relax.
Beyond Friday, winds go solidly sub-SCA, while wave heights
on the ocean may still flirt with the 5 ft SCA criteria, but
overall a calmer period Friday night through Saturday night.
Greater risk of SCA returns Sunday ahead of the next cold front,
with southerly winds increasing and ocean waves building back
solidly above 5 feet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of today`s cold front, gusty winds and low humidity
will take hold for Thursday. Winds likely gust above 20 mph
along with RH`s down below 30 percent during the midday and
afternoon. As such, a Special Weather Statement may be
warranted, depending on fuel moistures.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Barnegat Bay and the back bays of the Delaware Beaches have
been slow to drain. Flow slowly turns more to the
north/northwest today. While water levels have lowered some more
since yesterday evening, and its now looking a bit more like the
only remaining tidal flooding will be sub-advisory minor, will
leave existing advisories in place until their 9 AM expiration.
Trends are our friend here and it appears this cycle should be
the end of it.
No further tidal issues expected elsewhere.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ020-
     026.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DEZ003-
     004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/RCM
NEAR TERM...Guzzo
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Guzzo/RCM
MARINE...Guzzo/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...PHI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion