Black Springs, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

784
FXUS65 KREV 282128
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
228 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon
  and evening with localized flash flooding possible.
* Strong low pressure will bring additional showers and storms,
  gusty winds, and cooler temperatures Monday through midweek.
* Unsettled weather may continue Friday into next weekend, but
  confidence is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current satellite imagery shows clouds developing in Mono, Mineral,
and South Lyon Counties this afternoon with the latest radar returns
picking up a showers and storms which signals that our expected
activity today has already begun. The aforementioned areas continue
to have a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
with other portions of the CWA in Western NV having around 15-25%.
By this evening, coverage shifts more into the Western NV Basin and
Range areas with PoPs being around 15-25%. When looking at
convective parameters for the rest of the day, they support storms
being able to produce strong outflow winds gusting up to around 50
mph and small hail. Due to their expected slower movement, storms
could potentially yield heavy rainfall that could lead to some
localized flash flooding particularly in areas south of I-80 today
where the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has a marginal (5%)
risk of excessive rainfall for today. The gusty outflow winds
could also cause some potential blowing dust in the western NV
desert and sink areas today. While the remainder of the region
looks to stay relatively dry today, cannot rule out a possible
stray shower or two developing in the Tahoe Basin or the Greater
Reno/Carson City/Minden area later today. Today looks to be the
warmest day of the week with Western NV seeing highs in the upper
70s to middle 80s and the Sierra communities reaching the middle
60s to lower 70s.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for
Monday with models showing an upper trough over the Pacific making
its way into Northern CA through the day. Chances for precipitation
tomorrow are forecast to be a bit higher than those seen today
(up to between 60-80% for areas north of US-50). It also looks to
be more active convective day as the latest EFI shows a maximum in
CAPE-Shear values located Northeastern CA and Northern Washoe
County with surrounding areas of the Sierra and also the Reno
metro area having increased values as well. The latest SPC
outlook has the entire CWA is highlighted for thunderstorms, but
cannot rule out a possible isolated severe thunderstorm or two at
this time. Potential thunderstorm hazards tomorrow again look to
be strong outflow winds, frequent lightning, large hail, and
heavy rainfall which could allow for flash flooding. A non-storm
related concern for the region tomorrow appears to be increased
west-southwest winds up to around 30-35 mph during the afternoon
hours with a cold frontal passage. This may cause choppy waters
on area lakes and travel impacts in addition to the expected
storms. Area temperatures are also forecast to cool tomorrow by
5-10 degrees from those seen today.
Going through the remainder of the week, temperatures more or less
trend cooler especially after another cold front passage on
Tuesday. Sierra valleys have freezing overnight lows in the
forecast by the end of the week. Lesser precipitation chances are
seen on Tuesday and Wednesday before tapering off after Thursday.
Currently, the forecast calls for dry conditions on Friday and
going through the weekend. However, long-term model guidance
still shows some good uncertainty with how the weather pattern
pattern in the extended period pans out. Stay tuned as forecast
details become more clear going forward. -078
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to be the main
concern today, especially around KMMH-KHTH where odds (30-60%)
are greatest. Thunderstorms have already begun and chances are
expected to continue through around 03Z. Thunderstorms are capable
of heavy downpours and brief MVFR conditions, gusty and erratic
outflow winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.
Elsewhere, models show thunderstorms staying east of KTRK-KTVL and
KRNO-KCXP-KMEV, but outflow winds could initiate thunderstorms
farther west near KRNO and KCXP-KMEV between 22Z and 02Z. The more
likely outcome for these terminals still looks to be cumulus build-
ups with perhaps a stray shower or two in the afternoon.
Strong low pressure in the eastern Pacific will strengthen S/SW
FL100 winds to 25-35 kts from Tahoe northward after 06Z tonight.
This coupled with weakening surface winds may present LLWS and
mountain wave turbulence issues tonight, becoming more
pronounced/widespread on Monday as winds aloft and at the surface
increase. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
tomorrow which may cause sub-VFR conditions along with gusty outflow
winds. -Salas/078
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion