253 FXUS64 KMOB 011745 AFDMOBArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A strong surface ridge will grip the southeast states tonight into Thursday as Hurricane Imelda pulls eastward over the western Atlantic. This ridge will bring increasing easterly winds the latter half of the week, especially for our coastal communities. Mostly dry conditions will persist through noon Saturday aside from isolated light showers popping up along coastal Alabama. Better rain chances will occur over the weekend into early next week as a series of low-level easterly waves move across the northern Gulf. We are still expecting isolated to scattered showers and storms south of U.S. Highway 84 from Saturday afternoon through noon Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will follow Sunday afternoon through midweek across most of the forecast area, with the highest rain chances occurring closer to the coast. At this time, the bulk of the heavy rain will remain out over the Gulf.
High temperatures in the middle to upper 80s Thursday will dip slightly into the lower to middle 80s Friday through the weekend. Highs should then rebound into the middle 80s all areas Monday and Tuesday, and from 85 to 90 degrees midweek. Low temperature tonight through Friday night will be in the lower to middle 60s inland, and the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast. Lows should then rebound into the middle 60s to lower 70s Saturday night through the remainder of the forecast.
Beach Forecast: A LOW rip current risk is forecast through tonight, followed by a rapid jump to HIGH on Thursday as increasing easterly winds and building surf impact the beaches. The risk will remain HIGH through the upcoming weekend as a strong surface ridge grips the southeast states. /22
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions will persist throughout the period with a light but gusty easterly winds around 10 knots gusting to 15 knots. Winds will remain easterly throughout the forecast diminishing overnight and strengthening during the day tomorrow. BB-8
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.MARINE... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Gulf Thursday through the weekend as strong easterly flow develops on the south side of a strong surface ridge along the East Coast. Seas will trend much higher, and could be as high as 8 to 10 feet well offshore beginning late Thursday night. Small craft should exercise caution over all bays and sounds beginning Thursday night due to a moderate easterly flow. Until then, a light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly flow prevails through tonight. /22
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 65 86 64 84 66 85 69 83 / 20 20 0 0 10 20 30 50 Pensacola 69 85 67 84 70 85 72 83 / 10 20 0 10 10 30 40 60 Destin 70 85 68 84 70 85 72 83 / 10 10 0 10 10 30 40 60 Evergreen 62 87 59 85 62 86 67 85 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 10 40 Waynesboro 63 85 60 83 62 84 66 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Camden 61 85 59 82 62 84 66 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Crestview 63 86 61 84 64 84 68 84 / 0 10 0 0 0 20 20 50
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.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Monday afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Monday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 6 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675.
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion