Blanton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

434
FXUS64 KSJT 052008
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
308 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms this afternoon
  and evening. Locally heavy rain and some brief gusty winds
  possible.
- Cooler tomorrow behind the front with additional chances for
  showers and thunderstorms.
- Rain chances will continue Saturday night through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Early this afternoon a cold front was over the Big Country and
moving southward toward the I-20 corridor.  This frontal boundary
will continue moving southward to the Edwards Plateau and northwest
Hill Country overnight. There are also some shortwave impulses
rotating around the base of a broad upper-level low located over
the north-central US. Storms have developed along one of these
impulses as it is moves through the Concho Valley this afternoon.
Storms are not expected to become severe, but so far some mid-
level dry air has been mixed down by a few cells and resulted in
locally gusty winds. As the aforementioned front continues
southward, it should enhance showers and thunderstorms as they
develop northward into the Big Country late this evening. PWATs
are between 1-1.3 inches so locally heavy rainfall could occur,
especially in areas that see multiple rounds of rain. Conditions
appear favorable for additional showers and thunderstorms behind
the front tomorrow morning with some elevated instability.
Instability tomorrow afternoon should become more focused from the
Concho Valley southward where the best chances for additional
showers and thunderstorms will be.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Saturday night into Sunday an upper level ridge will be centered
across South Texas and northern Mexico with a large upper level
trough across the northern CONUS. The remnant moisture from Tropical
Storm Lorena are forecast to get pulled into the southwest U.S.
along the eastern periphery of the ridge, then eventually into
portions of West Texas. This will result in the development of
showers and thunderstorms, with the highest rain chances across the
southern half of the area. The highest rain chances will be Saturday
night into Sunday, again favoring our southern counties, with lower
rain chance across the Big Country. There remains uncertainty on
exactly how much coverage of showers and thunderstorms we will see.
Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to 1.7 to 2
inches, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Highs on Sunday
will be well below seasonal normals. Extensive cloud cover along
with expected showers and thunderstorms will result in highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are again possible Monday, mainly across our southern
counties, but the better rain chances are forecast to shift south of
the area. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 80s to near 90.
Tuesday through the end of next work week, upper level ridging will
build back into the forecast area, resulting in dry conditions and
temperatures climbing back to near to slightly above seasonal
normals. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in
the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Frontal boundary is moving southward this afternoon, which will
result in a wind shift out of the north and northeast after it
passes. Chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms will also
increase along and behind the front between 22-02Z. Any storms
that occur should be brief. Additional chances for brief showers
will occur overnight, followed by MVFR ceilings by 12Z Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     64  81  66  85 /  40  30  20  30
San Angelo  65  80  65  82 /  40  50  40  50
Junction    70  83  65  83 /  10  50  40  70
Brownwood   65  80  65  84 /  20  30  20  50
Sweetwater  62  80  65  86 /  40  20  20  30
Ozona       67  82  65  81 /  40  60  50  70
Brady       68  78  66  81 /  20  40  30  60
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...SK

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion