Bloomfield, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

826
FXUS63 KABR 160505
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for rainfall again tonight/Tuesday (20-30%), with
  severe storm potential confined to Marginal Risk (threat level 1
  of 5) across southern SD Tuesday late afternoon/evening.
- Higher chances (60-70%) for rainfall Wednesday and Thursday,
  perhaps evening lingering through Friday. 1 to 2+ inches of
  rainfall possible (20-40% chance for 2"+).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Current radar trends show convection mainly limited to far western
South Dakota/Black Hills region, however we do have a few stray
showers across Corson County in our area. The CAMS most
representative of current radar reflectivity (HRRR/RAP/ARW)
depict these very isolated storms making an eastward progression
across our northern CWA overnight. It doesn`t appear that a strong
low level jet will be present to help develop/maintain storms in
the overnight hours. Therefore only made a few minor adjustments
to the forecast POPs to adjust timing, but did not increase
chances to more than slight. Similar adjustments were made to
cloud cover. No other major changes made with the package update
this evening.
UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
See the updated aviation discussion below.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
A cold front will move into the CWA on Tuesday, orienting itself
from northeast to southwest through the area by 12Z. A weak wave of
low pressure will also move into the region, with limited chances
(~20-30%) for showers across central SD tonight into Tuesday
morning. Instability is limited (MUCAPE 

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion