Blue Hole Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

661
FXUS61 KCTP 130430
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1230 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of rain and drizzle for tonight through Monday,
  mainly across the eastern half of the CWA
* Decreasing clouds on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold
  front as breezy conditions persist
* High pressure brings cooler and dry weather for the rest of
  the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
An area of broad mid and upper level subsidence associated with
the left entrance region of a jetlet that lifting north and
east of the region, gave much of the region decent early autumn
weather with temps nearing forecast highs in the mid to upper
60s.
Increasing mid-level FGEN forcing and upper level divergence
will occur as the compact upper low over upstate NY spirals back
to the SSW overnight and a slowly weakening, slightly sub-1000
mb low lifts NWD up the eastern seaboard.
Without any deepening of this sluggish eastern US sfc and upper
trough rainfall that advects wwd across the Susq Valley and
Central Mtns will be generally light in intensity and share the
overnight hours with periods of drizzle and low clouds/ridge
shrouding fog. The area of our CWA east of the Susq Mainstem and
typically prone to somewhat heavier QPF from a coastal low
could see over one half inch of additional rainfall tonight
through midnight Monday night.
Some clearing across the far NW should allow temps to dip to
around 40F, while thicker clouds and higher Tds over the Central
and East will limit temps from falling below 50F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Periods of generally light rain and drizzle will persist through
Monday with a large area of low stratus blanketing much of the
CWA, except for the region near and to the west of Route 219
(across the Laurels and NW Mtns) where higher cloud bases and
even some breaks of fleeting sunshine with little more than a
few morning showers and/or drizzle will be found as the
aforementioned upper low drops south across that part of the
state.
Monday afternoon should feature a decreasing trend in areal
coverage of light precip across the Central and Western Mtns,
while the Susq valley and points east will still see low clouds
and periods of light rain/drizzle as the sfc and dual upper low
centers consolidate near the Delmarva Coast.
The northeast llvl flow and thick cloud cover will yield a
typical cool air damming temp pattern across the CWA with highs
limited to the 50s in most places. Some of the highest terrain
across the Endless Mtns region could struggle to climb above 50F
for a high.
Warren Co will be the warmer place in the CWA once again Monday
with highs in the 65-70F range. The rain will end in the east
early Monday night with Chance (30-40) PoPs early on near and to
the east of the Susq Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A brief shower possible across the NW Mtns early Wednesday as a
secondary front pushes SE in a fairly uneventful fashion.
Cooler and dry air will follow this front for the second half
of the week. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through Friday
as a large, 1026 mb sfc high drifts slowly SE from the Glakes to
Carolina Coast Tuesday through the end of the week.
The dryness will peak on Thursday with dewpoints only 25-35F in
the aftn. The wind could be high and gusty enough to create some
concern for our fire-weather sensitive partners. But, we`ll
have a few days to better examine those conditions. It will
also be dry/clear enough to cause frost/freeze conditions for
the SE, mainly on Friday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some adjustments to the TAFs since I came in at 1130 PM. Low
clouds and bands of showers working to the west. This trend will
continue overnight.
Earlier discussion below.
VFR conditions at all airfields will gradually deteriorate from
southeast (LNS/MDT) to northwest overnight and into Monday.
Scattered rain showers will develop during the predawn hours and
continue through the day. It will not be a washout, but brief
visibility reductions to MVFR are possible. There could be some
drizzle as well, but IFR visibilities are not likely at this
time.
As showers increase and a coastal low approaches overnight, MVFR
ceilings will overspread the region, reaching LNS, MDT, JST, and
AOO first this evening and then moving northwest overnight. BFD
may not see restrictions until after 09Z. IFR ceilings are a
most likely (>50% chance) at the four southernmost airfields
listed above and possible (>20%) at UNV and IPT. The guidance
(and our forecast) may actually be a bit too pessimistic, but
easterly flow with sufficient moisture tends to lead to
restrictions and leaning heavily on model guidance seems
prudent.
IFR should improve to MVFR at most airfields (except perhaps LNS
and MDT) Monday afternoon as the boundary layer deepens and
scattered showers continue.
Outlook...
Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.
Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR and becoming breezy.
Thu...VFR, still breezy.
Fri...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Banghoff/Martin

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion