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Blue Point, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

509
FXUS63 KILX 142350
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 650 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next weather system has trended slower, and now mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail through the daytime hours on Thursday, with highs in the 90s.

- Occasional rain chances return late week into the weekend (20-40% each day). Total rainfall amounts are unlikely to exceed 1" (less than 20% chance).

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

*** TODAY ***

It`s another hot day as central Illinois remains positioned directly beneath the upper level ridge axis. In fact, it will likely be among the hottest days this year, as temps have already climbed as high as 95 or 96 degrees in some spots as of 1830z/130pm. While these conditions are well-above normal for mid- September, record setting heat still looks unlikely as the record warm highs are in the triple digits at each of our official climate sites (Peoria, Springfield, Lincoln). Dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s this afternoon will result in peak heat indices in the upper 90s/near 100 degrees.

Satellite imagery shows scattered diurnal Cu forming along and south of a Macomb to Mattoon line as of 19z/2pm, but forecast soundings from the overly moist NAM still show a modest layer of CIN (capping) above the LCL (cloud base), which combined with very weak forcing will make it quite difficult for storms to initiate this afternoon/evening. Any development that does occur will be isolated, at best, and likely won`t form until the early evening hours. Maintained a 10-15% chance of storms across west-central IL.

*** THIS WEEK ***

The most notable change in the forecast for the upcoming week is a slowing trend in the arrival of the next system. This is because the upper ridge axis tilts northeast in time, forming a Rex block (high pressure poleward of low pressure) over the eastern US. This block will act to slow the progression of an approaching closed upper low, and upper lows already have a tendency to arrive slower than projected by models.

These changes were well captured by the latest NBM guidance, which trended slower with PoPs. The expectation is now that high temps will remain above 90 through at least Thurs, and mostly dry conditions (aside from a very low chance, 10% or less, of a storm across west-central IL each afternoon) will prevail. As has been noted previously, this is bad news for the worsening drought conditions and increases the potential for field fires during harvest activity. The good news is that sustained wind speeds should generally stay below 10 mph each day through Thurs, which will help limit the risk of rapid fire spread.

The slow-moving upper low is expected to arrive late week and meander around the area into the weekend, resulting in several periods with at least a chance (20-40%) of precip and a cooling trend in the temperatures. The potential for total rainfall amounts of over 1" through the end of next weekend remains low (20% or less), but there is at least a modest signal (30-40%) for a half inch of rain. I`m a bit skeptical that signal holds though, as guidance tends to overdue rainfall amounts in the medium/long range during drought.

Erwin

&&

.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Fairly steady state conditions are expected across central Illinois under the influence of high pressure centered near James Bay. ENE to ESE flow in the 5-8kt range is expected to prevail across central Illinois, though there may be some variability at times due to the overall low magnitude of winds. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&

$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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