Blunn Creek Greenbelt Trail Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

886
FXUS64 KEWX 141757
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1257 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures continue through early
  next week.
- Weak front brings low chances (10-20%) for rain this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
An anomalous upper-level ridge is holding firm over Texas and will
continue to do so through Wednesday. Upper-air observations and
models indicate max 500mb heights near 594-595 dm, signifying a
ridge about as strong as historically observed for this time of
year. While the lower sun angle, easterly low to mid-level winds,
and marginal moisture return are helping to partly mitigate higher
temperatures being realized at the surface, abnormal daytime warmth
continues with highs remaining 5 to 10 degrees above average for mid-
October.
Forecast lows tonight range from near 70 along the Rio Grande to the
mid 50s to low 60s for the rest of South Central Texas. A weak mid-
level inverted trough is currently trekking across South Texas and
will bring some shallow added moisture to the Rio Grande overnight,
but rain chances are kept out of the forecast with modeled moisture
profiles remaining very dry aloft. Wednesday looks similar to today
with abundant sunshine and a dry heat with highs again in the upper
80s to low 90s, followed by another night with temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s for most of the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Beginning around Thursday, a prominent trough pressing east across
the Rockies and a small inverted upper trough arriving over South
Texas will work to move upper-level ridging away from South Central
Texas. Unseasonable warmth is expected to continue with highs
remaining in the upper 80s to low 90s into next week, but this
disruption in the upper-level synoptic pattern at least opens up an
opportunity for more variable weather as we transition to late
October.
As troughing amplifies, southerly flow is expected to strengthen and
increase moisture transport from Gulf. The core of this moist plume
is directed over East Texas in the latest medium range guidance, but
its western flanks support a low chance for isolated thunderstorms
mainly along and east of Highway 77.
The larger trough approaching from the western US swings over our
area Saturday, accompanied by a weak Pacific front. There has been
some souring of rain chances and amounts in ensemble model guidance,
but uncertainty remains as trough evolution across the Rockies shows
considerable variance. Lifting along the front and over the moist
axis still supports at least low chances (around 10 to 20 percent)
for isolated rain and thunder Saturday into Saturday night for
mainly the Hill Country, I-35 corridor north of I-10, and the
Coastal Plains. If the front arrives during peak heating,
compressional heating with westerly to northwesterly low-level flows
across the frontal surface suggests a chance for some daily record
highs in the low to mid 90s Saturday east of the Balcones Escarpment.
A dry airmass is expected to follow the front, but with the trough
quickly sliding to the east and zonal flow rapidly returning aloft,
the prospects for more seasonable afternoons this weekend and early
next week are low... highs well above normal are expected to persist
into midweek next week. While post-frontal winds look light at
this time, low RH values below 25 percent on Sunday could present
some elevated fire weather concerns if weekend rains remain light
and sparse.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Fair weather cumulus is expected this afternoon mainly over
DRT/SSF/SAT, with clear skies at AUS, where it`s a bit drier.
Overnight to late morning MVFR CIGs are projected again at DRT and
will mainly just west of the SAT/SSF. Winds will continue out of the
East and Southeast and mainly light and variable at night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  91  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  92  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     61  91  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            61  88  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  91  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        61  90  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             62  91  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        61  93  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   61  91  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  91  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           66  92  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...18

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion