Blythe California Weather Forecast Discussion

012
FXUS65 KVEF 091940
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1240 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A Flood Watch is in effect for Mohave County, Lincoln County,
  portions of southeastern San Bernardino County and the Spring
  Mountains through Saturday evening.
* Moisture from Tropical Storm Priscilla will bring multiple rounds
  of showers and thunderstorms to the region through Saturday.
* An incoming trough will help to flush moisture from the region as
  it moves through the Southwestern US late Saturday into Sunday,
  leaving cooler than normal temperatures in its wake.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.
Big story continues to be in the incoming moisture and precipitation
from what is now Tropical Storm Priscilla. We should be clear: this
is NOT another Hilary. The circulation from Priscilla won`t even
reach our area, but it`s moisture is currently being sheared off and
advected into our area. This will bring multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms to the southeastern 2/3 of our CWA through
Saturday, with the cutoff being roughly along a line from
northwestern San Bernardino County to western Lincoln County. Given
the stronger flow aloft, showers and storms will move pretty quickly
to the northeast. However, very anomalous moisture for mid-October
will make for very efficient rainfall producing convection. Greatest
risk for flash flooding will be where precipitation can train over
the same area. Morning hi-res guidance suggests this is most likely
to occur along a line generally from Barstow to Pahrump to
western/central Lincoln County today, and potentially along the I-15
corridor on Friday. Because of this expected line of precipitation
and some enhancement via orographic lift, opted to add the Spring
Mountains to the Flood Watch. Farther southeast, anticipating waves
of widespread stratiform precipitation with embedded thunderstorms.
By Saturday, a trough and its associated gusty, southwest winds
will begin to kick the moisture off to the east with precipitation
chances largely focused east of Las Vegas.
By Sunday, the aforementioned trough will have ushered in notably
drier air. Precipitation chances fall below 10% areawide.
Temperatures fall several degrees below normal, and stay that way
through the middle of next week. However, another trough looks to
bring more traditional cool-season precipitation to our northwestern
zones on Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoPs between 20-40%.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Rounds
of at least vicinity showers and storms are likely (70%) throughout
most of the TAF period. Hard to say exactly when any impacts will
occur, but best odds are between now and 12z Friday, and then again
Friday afternoon. When/if convection reaches the terminal, erratic
gusts of 15-25 knots and brief MVFR/IFR conditions will certainly be
possible (50%). In addition to the precipitation potential,
scattered to broken mid-level clouds will yield CIGs around 8-10kft.
Outside of convective influences, anticipating easterly winds 6-10
knots today, becoming light and variable overnight.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Similar story for most
of the forecast area, with rounds of showers and storms likely along
and east of a line from Barstow to Pahrump to western Lincoln
County. Convection is expected to move relatively fast so impacts
should be short-lived in most locations, but training convection in
the vicinity of the aforementioned line could yield more prolonged
impacts. Main concerns are erratic gusts of 15-25 knots, brief
MVFR/IFR conditions due to visibility reductions in precipitation,
and CIGs 8-10kft. Farther northwest, dry conditions and gusty south
winds of 20-35 knots are forecast.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Woods
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion