Bogata, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

716
FXUS64 KSHV 091716
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Hotter and more humid conditions will return to the region
   Wednesday through much, if not all of next week.
- Dry conditions will persist as well, with no rainfall expected
   for the foreseeable future.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The late morning sfc analysis indicates extensive sfc ridging
that extends from New England SW through the OH and the Mid MS
Vallies, into ECntrl TX, with the leading edge (on its Wrn fringe)
of higher theta-e air noted from SW and Cntrl LA into NE LA and
along the MS Valley, indicative of the contrast of lower/mid 60s
isodrosotherms and the developing cu field noted on the visible
satellite imagery. This sfc ridge remains progged to continue
drifting E while weakening through Wednesday, with the low level
flow becoming more ESE even as weak ridging redevelops over the
Ozarks Wednesday night. Thus, the deepening low level moisture
noted just to our E will continue to advect W into the region over
the next 24 hrs, returning a more humid air mass and a scattered
cu field over all of N LA, SW AR, and extreme Ern TX. Meanwhile,
flat upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW and Old MX
late this morning, but has recently shown signs of expanding NNE
into the Srn Rockies, and should continue to amplify NNE into the
Nrn Plains/Upper Midwest Wednesday as the center settles into W
TX. Increased subsidence beneath the ridge coupled with the Wwd
advection of higher theta-e air will result in a continued warming
trend over the area during the next 24-48 hrs, with temperatures
returning closer to normal Wednesday, and before our "next summer
season" return with temps climbing back above normal by Thursday.
Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected for late week
into the upcoming weekend, with the H850-700 ridge remaining
centered from our region N into the Ozarks, maintaining abnormally
hot and dry conditions areawide through much of next week. There
may be some hint of the ridge flattening a bit by late next week,
but unfortunately, no rains are in the offing for the foreseeable
future, with the grounds continuing to dry out given the ample
insolation. Heat indices should remain below Adv. criteria through
the period, but still range from 95-100 degrees each afternoon.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Surface and upper-level ridge across the region to maintain dry
and VFR conditions through the terminal forecast period ending
10/18Z. Light northeast winds today to become variable overnight
and southeast up to 5 knots on Wednesday. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  93  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  67  92  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  89  63  93 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  61  93  67  95 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  61  92  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  90  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  92  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  61  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion